Baltika 0-1 Akron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baltika at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baltika vs Akron encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Akron make the trip to Rostec Arena to face Baltika in Premier League (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
Baltika's record over their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Baltika have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Baltika are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Akron have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Akron's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Baltika's 1.70 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Akron's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Baltika, 0 for Akron and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2025, ended Baltika 2–0 Akron — a Baltika win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Baltika — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Akron — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 83%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Baltika 38% versus Akron 73%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 27% | Akron 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 2.06 xG and Akron 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 1.080 / defence 0.937 | Akron attack 1.082 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.050. Akron's defence rating of 1.376 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Baltika's projected output up. Data: built from Baltika's last 26 games and Akron's last 56.
Result probabilities: Baltika 60% | Draw 21% | Akron 19%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 1.67 | Draw 4.68 | Akron 5.38. The model has a clear lean to Baltika (60%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Baltika 20% (last 10 home games) | Akron 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, matchday 27 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Monday 27 April 2026 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 60% | Draw 21% | Akron 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Baltika 2.06 / Akron 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 1.080 / def 0.937 | Akron attack 1.082 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Baltika (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Akron xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Akron FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Akron kick off?
Baltika vs Akron kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 27 April 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Akron?
Baltika 0 - 1 Akron.
Where is Baltika vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Akron part of?
Baltika vs Akron is a Premier League fixture (matchday 27) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 60% chance of winning, Akron a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Baltika and Akron will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Baltika vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Baltika's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Akron's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.06. Flip it around — Akron's attack (1.08x) against Baltika's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 26 games and Akron's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.68
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Baltika xG
Total xG
3.13
1.06
Akron xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
13%
7.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
42.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Akron Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Baltika and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Baltika and 1.06 for Akron, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Akron?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Baltika come into this having played 26 games, going 11W 13D 2L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-D.
On the other side, Akron sit at 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (5W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Baltika carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Akron — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Baltika's home form reads 7W 5D 0L across their last 12 home games, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Akron have taken 0.92 points per game from their last 12 away games (3W 2D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Baltika are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Akron are on 1.23 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akron in 73%.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Akron
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs Akron (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
Akron
Blended
❓ Baltika vs Akron Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Akron in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 11W 13D 2L in their last 26 games (1.77 PPG), while Akron have gone 5W 9D 12L in their last 26 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Akron away?
Baltika's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 2.17 PPG; Akron away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Baltika or Akron been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Akron in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Baltika and Akron, the earliest from August 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Baltika have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Akron — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Baltika
0
Draws
1
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Akron H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Akron?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 2, Akron have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Baltika and Akron last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Baltika 2-1 Akron.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Akron?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Akron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baltika 33%, Akron 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Baltika) and 50% (Akron).
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Akron Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Akron matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Baltika's recent matches and 58% of Akron's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and Akron matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Baltika's recent games and 50% of Akron's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Akron matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Baltika's recent matches and 67% of Akron's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Akron defy the odds to beat Baltika 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akron beat Baltika 0-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 2.06 xG and Akron 1.06 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baltika fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 1.08 / defence 0.94 against Akron attack 1.08 / defence 1.38, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 60% | Draw 21% | Akron 19%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Akron win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 27%, Akron 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Akron's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Akron winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.58 scoring average — below par going forward. Akron (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.