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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Rostov cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Akron.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Rostov beat Akron 1-3 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.01 xG and FC Rostov 1.27 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Rostov outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against FC Rostov attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akron 30% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 42%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 55%, FC Rostov 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akron's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

FC Rostov's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Akron 1.07 PPG, FC Rostov 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. Akron (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights