Akron 1-3 FC Rostov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Rostov at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Akron face FC Rostov.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akron host FC Rostov at Samara Arena in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Monday 11 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Akron stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Akron at home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Rostov — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
FC Rostov away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Akron 0.60 PPG, FC Rostov 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Akron, 1 for FC Rostov and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Nov 2025, ended Akron 1–0 FC Rostov — a Akron win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Akron in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
FC Rostov in-play and half-time data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akron 59% versus FC Rostov 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akron 55% | FC Rostov 36%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Akron surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while FC Rostov have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akron 1.01 xG and FC Rostov 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akron attack 0.895 / defence 1.259 | FC Rostov attack 0.964 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.045. Akron's defence rating of 1.259 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Rostov's projected output up. Data: built from Akron's last 58 games and FC Rostov's last 58.
Result probabilities: Akron 30% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 42%. Fair-value odds: Akron 3.38 | Draw 3.54 | FC Rostov 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Akron 90% (last 10 home games) | FC Rostov 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akron vs FC Rostov | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Samara Arena • Kick-off: Monday 11 May 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akron 30% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Akron 1.01 / FC Rostov 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Akron attack 0.895 / def 1.259 | FC Rostov attack 0.964 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.045 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Akron xG
Expected Goals
1.27
FC Rostov xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Akron vs FC Rostov FAQs
What time does Akron vs FC Rostov kick off?
Akron vs FC Rostov kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Monday 11 May 2026 at Samara Arena.
What was the final score in Akron vs FC Rostov?
Akron 1 - 3 FC Rostov.
Where is Akron vs FC Rostov being played?
The match is being played at Samara Arena.
What competition is Akron vs FC Rostov part of?
Akron vs FC Rostov is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akron vs FC Rostov?
Our statistical model gives Akron a 30% chance of winning, FC Rostov a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akron vs FC Rostov?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Akron and FC Rostov will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Akron vs FC Rostov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Akron's attack rating (0.90) and FC Rostov's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Rostov's attack versus Akron's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Akron's last 58 games and FC Rostov's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
30%
3.38
28%
3.54
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Akron xG
Total xG
2.28
1.27
FC Rostov xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Akron vs FC Rostov Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Akron vs FC Rostov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Akron and FC Rostov expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Akron and 1.27 for FC Rostov, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Akron vs FC Rostov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akron's recent record stands at 16W 14D 28L from 58 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-L in the last five.
FC Rostov, meanwhile, have gone 17W 18D 23L across 58 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Akron on 1.07 PPG, FC Rostov on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Akron have managed 7W 8D 14L from their last 29 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Rostov's away record stands at 9W 8D 12L across their last 29 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Akron are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; FC Rostov are on 1.09 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akron
Current Season
FC Rostov
Current Season
Akron (Home) vs FC Rostov (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Akron
Current Season
FC Rostov
Current Season
❓ Akron vs FC Rostov Form FAQs
What form are Akron and FC Rostov in coming into this match?
Akron have gone 16W 14D 28L in their last 58 games (1.07 PPG), while FC Rostov have gone 17W 18D 23L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akron at home or FC Rostov away?
FC Rostov's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akron at home: 1.00 PPG; FC Rostov away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2024. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Rostov have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Akron's record when hosting FC Rostov specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Akron
0
Draws
3
FC Rostov
Recent Meetings
❓ Akron vs FC Rostov H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Akron and FC Rostov?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Akron have won 2, FC Rostov have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Akron and FC Rostov last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: FC Rostov 1-0 Akron.
Who has won more matches between Akron and FC Rostov?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akron are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 73% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akron 69%, FC Rostov 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Akron) and 41% (FC Rostov).
On the defensive side: FC Rostov in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akron home games / FC Rostov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Akron vs FC Rostov Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Akron and FC Rostov matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Akron's games and 55% of FC Rostov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Akron and FC Rostov matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Akron's recent games and 41% of FC Rostov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akron and FC Rostov matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Akron's recent matches and 72% of FC Rostov's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Rostov cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Akron.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Akron 1-3 at Samara Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akron 1.01 xG and FC Rostov 1.27 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Rostov outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akron attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against FC Rostov attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akron 30% | Draw 28% | FC Rostov 42%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akron 55%, FC Rostov 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akron's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC Rostov's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akron 1.07 PPG, FC Rostov 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. Akron (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.