Akhmat 3-3 Khimki – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Khimki at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Khimki fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Khimki at Akhmat Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Akhmat have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Akhmat have posted 4W 2D 4L at Akhmat Arena — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Khimki stand at 1W 2D 2L from 5 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Khimki have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Akhmat) versus 1.00 (Khimki). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Akhmat have won 3, Khimki 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 3–0 with Akhmat winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Akhmat trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Khimki trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 40% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 20% versus Khimki 80%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akhmat 20% | Khimki 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.40 xG and Khimki 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.902 / defence 1.461 | Khimki attack 0.870 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.195. Data: 35 Akhmat games / 5 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 35% | Draw 26% | Khimki 40%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Khimki 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khimki at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Akhmat 50% | Khimki 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 35% | Draw 26% | Khimki 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Akhmat 1.40 / Khimki 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.902 / def 1.461 | Khimki attack 0.870 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Khimki (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Khimki xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Khimki kick off?
Akhmat vs Khimki kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Khimki?
Akhmat 3 - 3 Khimki.
Where is Akhmat vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Khimki part of?
Akhmat vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 35% chance of winning, Khimki a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Akhmat and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Khimki?
Record (4 meetings): Akhmat 3W | Draws 0 | Khimki 1W.
What form are Akhmat and Khimki in?
Akhmat (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Khimki (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.90x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
35%
2.89
26%
3.90
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.92
1.52
Khimki xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.52 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akhmat come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 3D 2L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Khimki, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Khimki carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Akhmat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Akhmat are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Khimki in 80%.
Defensively: Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Early Season
Khimki
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Khimki in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Khimki have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Akhmat or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Khimki in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akhmat and Khimki runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Akhmat won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Akhmat's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Akhmat
2
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 3, Khimki have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Khimki 1-1 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Khimki?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akhmat see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 20%, Khimki 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Akhmat and 40% for Khimki.
On the defensive side: Akhmat keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Akhmat have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Akhmat's recent matches and 80% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Akhmat vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Akhmat's recent games and 40% of Khimki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Khimki tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Khimki in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat and Khimki share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat and Khimki finished level at 3-3 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.40 xG and Khimki 1.52 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Akhmat beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khimki outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.90 / defence 1.46 against Khimki attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 35% | Draw 26% | Khimki 40%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 20%, Khimki 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Khimki's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Khimki arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Akhmat scored 3 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khimki scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.