Akhmat 3-3 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khimki at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Akhmat face Khimki.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Akhmat host Khimki at Akhmat Arena in Premier League (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 24 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Akhmat have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Akhmat have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 5 matches, Khimki stand at 1W 2D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Akhmat) versus 1.00 (Khimki). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Akhmat, 1 for Khimki and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 May 2023, ended Akhmat 3–0 Khimki — a Akhmat win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Akhmat trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Khimki trading profile (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 20% versus Khimki 80%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akhmat 20% | Khimki 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.40 xG and Khimki 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.902 / defence 1.461 | Khimki attack 0.870 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.195. Akhmat's defence rating of 1.461 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Khimki's projected output up. Data: built from Akhmat's last 35 games and Khimki's last 5.
Result probabilities: Akhmat 35% | Draw 26% | Khimki 40%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.89 | Draw 3.90 | Khimki 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Khimki at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khimki offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Akhmat's last 10 home games and Khimki's last 5 games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Akhmat 50% (last 10 home games) | Khimki 80% (last 5 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, matchday 6 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 35% | Draw 26% | Khimki 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Akhmat 1.40 / Khimki 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.902 / def 1.461 | Khimki attack 0.870 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Khimki (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Khimki xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Akhmat vs Khimki FAQs
What time does Akhmat vs Khimki kick off?
Akhmat vs Khimki kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Khimki?
Akhmat 3 - 3 Khimki.
Where is Akhmat vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Khimki part of?
Akhmat vs Khimki is a Premier League fixture (matchday 6) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 35% chance of winning, Khimki a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Khimki the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Akhmat and Khimki will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Akhmat vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 0.90x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Akhmat's last 35 games and Khimki's last 5 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Khimki Win
35%
2.89
26%
3.90
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.92
1.52
Khimki xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
22%
4.56
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
8%
13.18
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Akhmat vs Khimki Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.52 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akhmat come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 3D 2L for 0.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Khimki sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-D across their last five.
Khimki carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Akhmat — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Akhmat are averaging 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.20 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Akhmat have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Khimki in 80%.
Defensively: Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Early Season
Khimki
Early Season
Akhmat (Home) vs Khimki (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Akhmat
Early Season
Khimki
Early Season
❓ Akhmat vs Khimki Form FAQs
What form are Akhmat and Khimki in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Khimki have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Akhmat or Khimki been keeping clean sheets recently?
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Khimki in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Dec 2021, when Akhmat won Akhmat 4-1 Khimki.
Akhmat's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Akhmat
2
Draws
1
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Akhmat vs Khimki H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Khimki?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Akhmat have won 3, Khimki have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Khimki last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Khimki 1-1 Akhmat.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Khimki?
Akhmat have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akhmat see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 20%, Khimki 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Akhmat and 40% for Khimki.
On the defensive side: Akhmat keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Akhmat have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Akhmat vs Khimki Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Akhmat and Khimki matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Akhmat's recent matches and 80% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Akhmat and Khimki matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Akhmat's recent games and 40% of Khimki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Khimki matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 40% of Akhmat's recent matches and 60% of Khimki's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat and Khimki share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat and Khimki finished level at 3-3 at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.40 xG and Khimki 1.52 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Akhmat beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khimki outscored their 1.52 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.90 / defence 1.46 against Khimki attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 35% | Draw 26% | Khimki 40%, with Khimki to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 20%, Khimki 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Khimki's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Khimki arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Akhmat scored 3 against a 0.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khimki scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.