Akhmat 0-0 Akron – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akron at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Akhmat vs Akron fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Akhmat welcome Akron to Akhmat Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Akhmat stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Akhmat have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Akhmat at Akhmat Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Akron — All Games: 2W 1D 5L from 8 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.88 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Akron have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Akron's away record: 2W 1D 2L from 5 road trips in Premier League this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.88 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Akhmat) versus 0.88 (Akron). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Akhmat trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 62% of games.
Akron trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 38% versus Akron 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 38% | Akron 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.96 xG and Akron 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.054 / defence 1.558 | Akron attack 1.042 / defence 1.364. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.226. Akron bring a strong defensive rating of 1.364 — this is suppressing Akhmat's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Akhmat games / 6 Akron games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Akhmat 39% | Draw 21% | Akron 40%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.56 | Draw 4.76 | Akron 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.99) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Akron at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates are neutral: Akhmat 50% | Akron 40%.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Akron | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Akhmat Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 39% | Draw 21% | Akron 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Akhmat 1.96 / Akron 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 1.054 / def 1.558 | Akron attack 1.042 / def 1.364 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Akron (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Akron xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Akhmat vs Akron kick off?
Akhmat vs Akron kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Akhmat Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Akron?
Akhmat 0 - 0 Akron.
Where is Akhmat vs Akron being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Akron part of?
Akhmat vs Akron is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Akron?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 39% chance of winning, Akron a 40% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Akron the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Akron?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Akhmat and Akron will score (BTTS).
Will Akhmat vs Akron have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Akron?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Akhmat and Akron in?
Akhmat (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Akron (all comps): 2W-1D-5L in 8 | 0.88 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.88 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Akhmat's attack at 1.05x the league average against Akron's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.96 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Akron's attack versus Akhmat's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.5%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Akron Win
39%
2.57
21%
4.80
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Akhmat xG
Total xG
3.95
1.99
Akron xG
2.57
39%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.87
Clean Sheet
14%
7.31
14%
7.09
Win to Nil
5%
18.75
6%
17.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Akron?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Akron expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Akhmat and 1.99 for Akron, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Akron?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Akhmat's recent record stands at 0W 4D 4L from 8 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Akhmat, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Akron, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 5L across 8 games — 0.88 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Akron, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Akhmat on 0.50 PPG, Akron on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Akhmat have managed 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Akron's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akron come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Akhmat are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Akron are on 1.25 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 8 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Early Season
Akron
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Akhmat and Akron in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 0W 4D 4L in their last 8 games (0.50 PPG), while Akron have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Akron away?
Akron's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 0.50 PPG; Akron away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Akhmat and Akron runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Sep 2025, when Akhmat won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Akhmat's record when hosting Akron specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Akhmat
2
Draws
1
Akron
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Akron?
From 4 meetings on record, Akhmat have won 1, Akron have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Akron last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Akron 1-1 Akhmat.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Akron see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 75%, Akron 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Akhmat and 75% for Akron. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Akron away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Akhmat play Akron?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Akhmat's games and 50% of Akron's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Akhmat vs Akron usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Akhmat's matches and 75% of Akron's.
Do Akhmat and Akron tend to score early?
Akhmat have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Akron in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Akhmat's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Akhmat Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Akhmat and Akron drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.96 xG and Akron 1.99 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Akhmat fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Akron landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 1.05 / defence 1.56 against Akron attack 1.04 / defence 1.36, drawn from 36/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 39% | Draw 21% | Akron 40%, with Akron to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 56% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 38%, Akron 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 62% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Akron's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 0.50 PPG, Akron 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akhmat (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 3.50 average — tighter than their form line. Akron (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.