Khimki 0-2 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Khimki vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Khimki welcome CSKA Moscow to Arena Khimki. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khimki — All Games: 1W 3D 2L from 6 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.83 conceded. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Khimki have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Khimki have posted 0W 2D 1L at Arena Khimki — 0.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier League games this season, CSKA Moscow have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
CSKA Moscow's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. CSKA Moscow's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Khimki's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Khimki, 2 for CSKA Moscow and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Khimki in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
CSKA Moscow in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Khimki 83% versus CSKA Moscow 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khimki 50% | CSKA Moscow 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khimki 1.06 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khimki attack 0.856 / defence 1.215 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.144 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.227. Data: 6 Khimki games / 36 CSKA Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khimki 23% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 53%. Fair-value odds: Khimki 4.35 | Draw 4.17 | CSKA Moscow 1.89. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Khimki 100% | CSKA Moscow 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khimki vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Khimki • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khimki 23% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Khimki 1.06 / CSKA Moscow 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Khimki attack 0.856 / def 1.215 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.144 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Khimki xG
Expected Goals
1.71
CSKA Moscow xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khimki vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
Khimki vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Arena Khimki.
What was the final score in Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Khimki 0 - 2 CSKA Moscow.
Where is Khimki vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Arena Khimki.
What competition is Khimki vs CSKA Moscow part of?
Khimki vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Khimki a 23% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Khimki and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Khimki vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and CSKA Moscow?
Record (4 meetings): Khimki 1W | Draws 1 | CSKA Moscow 2W.
What form are Khimki and CSKA Moscow in?
Khimki (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.83 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khimki's attack at 0.86x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, CSKA Moscow's attack versus Khimki's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
23%
4.26
24%
4.17
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Khimki xG
Total xG
2.76
1.71
CSKA Moscow xG
4.26
23%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
18%
5.51
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
4%
23.44
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.8 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Khimki and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Khimki and 1.71 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Khimki vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 6 outings, Khimki have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 1W 3D 2L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Khimki, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
CSKA Moscow's form line: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, CSKA Moscow are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Khimki.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Khimki have posted 0.67 PPG from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
On the road, CSKA Moscow have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khimki are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 2.17 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Khimki have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khimki
Early Season
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khimki and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
Khimki have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khimki at home or CSKA Moscow away?
CSKA Moscow's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khimki at home: 0.67 PPG; CSKA Moscow away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Khimki or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Khimki have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Khimki and CSKA Moscow runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: CSKA Moscow have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when CSKA Moscow won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khimki's record when hosting CSKA Moscow specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Khimki
1
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khimki and CSKA Moscow?
From 6 meetings on record, Khimki have won 1, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Khimki and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when CSKA Moscow 1-0 Khimki.
Who has won more matches between Khimki and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khimki see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Khimki at 100%, CSKA Moscow at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Khimki) and 67% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 67%; CSKA Moscow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khimki home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khimki play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Khimki's games and 33% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khimki vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Khimki's recent games and 67% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khimki and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
Khimki have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Khimki 0-2 at Arena Khimki, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khimki 1.06 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.71 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Khimki fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khimki attack 0.86 / defence 1.22 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.14 / defence 0.88, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khimki 23% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 53%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khimki 50%, CSKA Moscow 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khimki's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.