🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala finished level at 1-1 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.37 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.68 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.93 / defence 0.80 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Akhmat 53% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 45%, Dinamo Makhachkala 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Akhmat's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.05 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights