Akhmat 1-1 Dinamo Makhachkala – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Akhmat at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Akhmat face Dinamo Makhachkala.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala meet at Akhmat-Arena in Premier League (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form
Akhmat (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Akhmat at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Akhmat are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dinamo Makhachkala have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Dinamo Makhachkala have posted 0W 4D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Dinamo Makhachkala edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2025, ended Akhmat 0–1 Dinamo Makhachkala — a Dinamo Makhachkala win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Akhmat — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dinamo Makhachkala — key trading statistics (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 55% versus Dinamo Makhachkala 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Akhmat 45% | Dinamo Makhachkala 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.37 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 0.926 / defence 0.801 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.808 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.053. Data: built from Akhmat's last 58 games and Dinamo Makhachkala's last 58.
Result probabilities: Akhmat 53% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 1.87 | Draw 3.57 | Dinamo Makhachkala 5.38. Akhmat hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Akhmat are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Akhmat's last 10 home games and Dinamo Makhachkala's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Akhmat 40% (last 10 home games) | Dinamo Makhachkala 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Akhmat-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Akhmat 53% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Akhmat 1.37 / Dinamo Makhachkala 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Akhmat attack 0.926 / def 0.801 | Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.808 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Akhmat (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Akhmat xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
37%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala FAQs
What time does Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala kick off?
Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Akhmat-Arena.
What was the final score in Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Akhmat 1 - 1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Where is Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala being played?
The match is being played at Akhmat-Arena.
What competition is Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala part of?
Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our statistical model gives Akhmat a 53% chance of winning, Dinamo Makhachkala a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Akhmat the favourite.
Will both teams score in Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Akhmat's attack rating (0.93) and Dinamo Makhachkala's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dinamo Makhachkala's attack (0.81x) against Akhmat's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from Akhmat's last 58 games and Dinamo Makhachkala's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Akhmat Win
53%
1.87
28%
3.57
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Akhmat xG
Total xG
2.05
0.68
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
5%
21.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.0 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Akhmat and 0.68 for Dinamo Makhachkala, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Akhmat come into this having played 58 games, going 14W 19D 25L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Dinamo Makhachkala sit at 0.91 PPG from 58 outings (11W 20D 27L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Akhmat against 0.91 for Dinamo Makhachkala. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Akhmat's home form reads 12W 9D 8L across their last 29 home games, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Akhmat are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dinamo Makhachkala have taken 0.59 points per game from their last 29 away games (2W 11D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Akhmat come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Akhmat are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Dinamo Makhachkala are on 0.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Akhmat
Current Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Current Season
Akhmat (Home) vs Dinamo Makhachkala (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Akhmat
Current Season
Dinamo Makhachkala
Current Season
❓ Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala Form FAQs
What form are Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala in coming into this match?
Akhmat have gone 14W 19D 25L in their last 58 games (1.05 PPG), while Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 11W 20D 27L in their last 58 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Akhmat at home or Dinamo Makhachkala away?
Akhmat's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Akhmat at home: 1.55 PPG; Dinamo Makhachkala away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Akhmat have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Akhmat
2
Draws
2
Dinamo Makhachkala
Recent Meetings
❓ Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Akhmat have won 1, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Akhmat 3-2 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala?
Dinamo Makhachkala have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Akhmat see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Akhmat 52%, Dinamo Makhachkala 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Akhmat and 28% for Dinamo Makhachkala.
On the defensive side: Akhmat keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Dinamo Makhachkala in 55%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Akhmat home games / Dinamo Makhachkala away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Akhmat vs Dinamo Makhachkala Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Akhmat's recent matches and 41% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Akhmat's recent games and 28% of Dinamo Makhachkala's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Akhmat's recent matches and 76% of Dinamo Makhachkala's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Akhmat and Dinamo Makhachkala finished level at 1-1 at Akhmat-Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Akhmat 1.37 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.68 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Akhmat attack 0.93 / defence 0.80 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Akhmat 53% | Draw 28% | Dinamo Makhachkala 19%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Akhmat 45%, Dinamo Makhachkala 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Akhmat's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Akhmat 1.05 PPG, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.