Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Akhmat at 44%, yet in-form CSKA Moscow provide a compelling counter-argument — this Akhmat vs CSKA Moscow fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

CSKA Moscow make the trip to Akhmat-Arena to face Akhmat in Premier League (matchday 19). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Akhmat's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Akhmat have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Akhmat are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

CSKA Moscow have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

CSKA Moscow's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

CSKA Moscow arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head sample leans to CSKA Moscow, who have 6 wins from 9 H2H matches compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2025, ended Akhmat 1–2 CSKA Moscow — a CSKA Moscow win.

The H2H data backs the away side. CSKA Moscow have won 6 of 9 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Akhmat 56% versus CSKA Moscow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Akhmat 48% | CSKA Moscow 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Akhmat surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while CSKA Moscow have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Akhmat 1.41 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Akhmat attack 1.006 / defence 1.078 | CSKA Moscow attack 1.045 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 0.975. Data: built from Akhmat's last 48 games and CSKA Moscow's last 48.

Result probabilities: Akhmat 44% | Draw 27% | CSKA Moscow 29%. Fair-value odds: Akhmat 2.28 | Draw 3.68 | CSKA Moscow 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Akhmat as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form CSKA Moscow (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Akhmat if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Akhmat 50% (last 10 home games) | CSKA Moscow 50% (last 10 away games).

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