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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tondela and Alverca share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tondela and Alverca finished level at 1-1 at Estádio João Cardoso, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tondela 1.25 xG and Alverca 0.94 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tondela attack 0.63 / defence 0.98 against Alverca attack 0.77 / defence 1.29, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tondela 43% | Draw 29% | Alverca 28%, with Tondela to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tondela 57%, Alverca 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tondela's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

Alverca's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Alverca arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alverca (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights