Sporting CP 1-2 SC Braga – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sporting CP vs SC Braga encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Sporting CP welcome SC Braga to Estádio José Alvalade. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Sporting CP have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP at Estádio José Alvalade this season: 8W 1D 0L from 9 home games — 2.78 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 9 home games (78%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Braga stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Braga away from home this season: 4W 2D 2L from 8 away games — 1.75 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 8 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.70 vs 1.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sporting CP have won 1, SC Braga 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Sporting CP winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sporting CP in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time.
SC Braga in-play tendencies (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 39% versus SC Braga 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 39% | SC Braga 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.37 xG and SC Braga 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.147 / defence 0.807 | SC Braga attack 1.069 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.426. Data: 18 Sporting CP games / 18 SC Braga games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sporting CP 39% | Draw 29% | SC Braga 32%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | SC Braga 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sporting CP offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. This conflicts with form data: Sporting CP 22% | SC Braga 38% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sporting CP vs SC Braga | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio José Alvalade • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sporting CP 39% | Draw 29% | SC Braga 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Sporting CP 1.37 / SC Braga 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sporting CP attack 1.147 / def 0.807 | SC Braga attack 1.069 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Sporting CP xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SC Braga xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sporting CP vs SC Braga kick off?
Sporting CP vs SC Braga kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Estádio José Alvalade.
What was the final score in Sporting CP vs SC Braga?
Sporting CP 1 - 2 SC Braga.
Where is Sporting CP vs SC Braga being played?
The match is being played at Estádio José Alvalade.
What competition is Sporting CP vs SC Braga part of?
Sporting CP vs SC Braga is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Sporting CP vs SC Braga?
Our statistical model gives Sporting CP a 39% chance of winning, SC Braga a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sporting CP vs SC Braga?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sporting CP and SC Braga will score (BTTS).
Will Sporting CP vs SC Braga have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and SC Braga?
Record (1 meetings): Sporting CP 1W | Draws 0 | SC Braga 0W.
What form are Sporting CP and SC Braga in?
Sporting CP (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. SC Braga (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sporting CP's attack rating (1.15) and SC Braga's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Braga's attack versus Sporting CP's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.49
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Sporting CP xG
Total xG
2.60
1.23
SC Braga xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
11%
8.80
8%
12.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sporting CP vs SC Braga?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Sporting CP and SC Braga expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Sporting CP and 1.23 for SC Braga, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Sporting CP vs SC Braga?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sporting CP come into this having played 18 games, going 15W 2D 1L for 2.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Braga sit at 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of SC Braga — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sporting CP's home form reads 7W 1D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.75 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Braga have taken 1.75 points per game from 8 outings (4W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sporting CP are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; SC Braga are on 1.78 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their games; SC Braga in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sporting CP
Blended
SC Braga
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sporting CP and SC Braga in coming into this match?
Sporting CP have gone 15W 2D 1L in their last 18 games (2.61 PPG), while SC Braga have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sporting CP at home or SC Braga away?
Sporting CP's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sporting CP at home: 2.75 PPG; SC Braga away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Sporting CP or SC Braga been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sporting CP have kept a clean sheet in 61% of their recent games, SC Braga in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sporting CP and SC Braga runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Feb 2023, when Sporting CP won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sporting CP's record when hosting SC Braga specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sporting CP
5
Draws
1
SC Braga
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sporting CP and SC Braga?
From 10 meetings on record, Sporting CP have won 4, SC Braga have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sporting CP and SC Braga last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Braga 2-2 Sporting CP.
Who has won more matches between Sporting CP and SC Braga?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Sporting CP 25% BTTS, SC Braga 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Sporting CP and 38% for SC Braga.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; SC Braga in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sporting CP home games / SC Braga away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sporting CP play SC Braga?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Sporting CP's recent matches and 38% of SC Braga's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sporting CP vs SC Braga usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Sporting CP's recent games and 38% of SC Braga's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sporting CP and SC Braga tend to score early?
Sporting CP have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SC Braga in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SC Braga defy the odds to beat Sporting CP 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Braga beat Sporting CP 1-2 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.37 xG and SC Braga 1.23 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.15 / defence 0.81 against SC Braga attack 1.07 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 39% | Draw 29% | SC Braga 32%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual SC Braga win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 39%, SC Braga 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sporting CP's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 61% of the time, and conceded here.
SC Braga's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.61 PPG against 1.78. Form was overturned, with SC Braga winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sporting CP (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.