GIL Vicente 1-0 Portimonense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 41%, yet in-form GIL Vicente provide a compelling counter-argument — this GIL Vicente vs Portimonense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cidade de Barcelos plays host to GIL Vicente versus Portimonense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 23 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for GIL Vicente, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIL Vicente have posted 3W 2D 4L at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos — 1.22 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.22 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos this season.
Portimonense (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Portimonense have gone 5W 1D 2L from 8 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 8 games (62%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in GIL Vicente's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — GIL Vicente lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with GIL Vicente winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
GIL Vicente half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Portimonense half-time and goal-timing data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIL Vicente 50% versus Portimonense 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 56% | Portimonense 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.33 xG and Portimonense 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.116 / defence 1.136 | Portimonense attack 0.934 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.440. Data: 18 GIL Vicente games / 18 Portimonense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 32% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 41%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Portimonense 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Portimonense as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIL Vicente (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portimonense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: GIL Vicente 44% | Portimonense 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Portimonense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 32% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG GIL Vicente 1.33 / Portimonense 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.116 / def 1.136 | Portimonense attack 0.934 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.440 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Portimonense xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Portimonense kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Portimonense kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 23 January 2022 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Portimonense?
GIL Vicente 1 - 0 Portimonense.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Portimonense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Portimonense part of?
GIL Vicente vs Portimonense is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Portimonense?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 32% chance of winning, Portimonense a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Portimonense?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both GIL Vicente and Portimonense will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Portimonense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Portimonense?
Record (1 meetings): GIL Vicente 1W | Draws 0 | Portimonense 0W.
What form are GIL Vicente and Portimonense in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Portimonense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIL Vicente's attack rating (1.12) and Portimonense's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Portimonense's attack (0.93x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.53.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
32%
3.12
27%
3.65
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.86
1.53
Portimonense xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.39
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Portimonense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Portimonense expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 1.53 for Portimonense, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Portimonense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 7W 6D 5L from 18 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for GIL Vicente is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portimonense, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 7L across 18 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for GIL Vicente against 1.39 for Portimonense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, GIL Vicente have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Portimonense's away record stands at 5W 1D 2L across 8 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.39 PPG overall record — Portimonense travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portimonense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Portimonense are on 1.06 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Portimonense in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Blended
Portimonense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Portimonense in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 7W 6D 5L in their last 18 games (1.50 PPG), while Portimonense have gone 7W 4D 7L in their last 18 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIL Vicente at home or Portimonense away?
Portimonense's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIL Vicente at home: 1.00 PPG; Portimonense away: 2.00 PPG.
Have GIL Vicente or Portimonense been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Portimonense in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
GIL Vicente go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Portimonense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
GIL Vicente
0
Draws
2
Portimonense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Portimonense?
From 6 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 4, Portimonense have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Portimonense last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Portimonense 0-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Portimonense?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIL Vicente 50%, Portimonense 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (GIL Vicente) and 50% (Portimonense). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portimonense in 62%; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Portimonense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Portimonense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 25% of Portimonense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Portimonense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of GIL Vicente's matches and 50% of Portimonense's.
Do GIL Vicente and Portimonense tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Portimonense in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Portimonense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Portimonense 1-0 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 19, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.33 xG and Portimonense 1.53 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Portimonense landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.12 / defence 1.14 against Portimonense attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 32% | Draw 27% | Portimonense 41%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 56%, Portimonense 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Portimonense's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 1.50 PPG, Portimonense 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Portimonense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.