SC Braga 0-1 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Braga at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Braga vs Maritimo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 18 as SC Braga welcome Maritimo to Estádio Municipal de Braga. Kick-off is set for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, SC Braga have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SC Braga, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Braga, SC Braga have gone 5W 3D 1L this season (9 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Maritimo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Maritimo have posted 2W 2D 5L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.11 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, SC Braga have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SC Braga have won 1, Maritimo 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with SC Braga winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
SC Braga trading profile (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Maritimo trading profile (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Braga 47% versus Maritimo 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Braga 53% | Maritimo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Braga 2.32 xG and Maritimo 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Braga attack 1.227 / defence 0.966 | Maritimo attack 0.796 / defence 1.646. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.404. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.646 — this is suppressing SC Braga's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 SC Braga games / 17 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Braga 65% | Draw 19% | Maritimo 16%. Fair-value odds: SC Braga 1.54 | Draw 5.26 | Maritimo 6.25. The model has a clear lean to SC Braga (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.08) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SC Braga as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SC Braga 56% | Maritimo 78% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Braga vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Braga • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Braga 65% | Draw 19% | Maritimo 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG SC Braga 2.32 / Maritimo 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: SC Braga attack 1.227 / def 0.966 | Maritimo attack 0.796 / def 1.646 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: SC Braga (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
SC Braga xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Maritimo xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Braga vs Maritimo kick off?
SC Braga vs Maritimo kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What was the final score in SC Braga vs Maritimo?
SC Braga 0 - 1 Maritimo.
Where is SC Braga vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Braga.
What competition is SC Braga vs Maritimo part of?
SC Braga vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win SC Braga vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives SC Braga a 65% chance of winning, Maritimo a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making SC Braga the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Braga vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SC Braga and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will SC Braga vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Maritimo?
Record (1 meetings): SC Braga 1W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 0W.
What form are SC Braga and Maritimo in?
SC Braga (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Maritimo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SC Braga's attack at 1.23x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.65x — combine the two and it projects 2.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus SC Braga's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Braga Win
65%
1.54
19%
5.16
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
SC Braga xG
Total xG
3.40
1.08
Maritimo xG
1.54
65%
Home win
5.16
19%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
10%
10.21
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
2%
64.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Braga vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are SC Braga and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for SC Braga and 1.08 for Maritimo, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Braga vs Maritimo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 17 outings, SC Braga have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 9W 5D 3L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SC Braga is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo's form line: 5W 5D 7L from 17 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Braga are the form team by 0.70 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Maritimo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SC Braga have posted 2.00 PPG from 9 outings (5W 3D 1L).
On the road, Maritimo have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Braga come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SC Braga are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.29 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo in 65%.
Defensively: SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Braga
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Braga and Maritimo in coming into this match?
SC Braga have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Braga at home or Maritimo away?
SC Braga's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Braga at home: 2.00 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.89 PPG.
Have SC Braga or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Braga have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Maritimo in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Braga and Maritimo runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: SC Braga have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Aug 2022, when SC Braga won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SC Braga's record when hosting Maritimo specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
SC Braga
0
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Braga and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, SC Braga have won 3, Maritimo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SC Braga and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2023, when Maritimo 1-2 SC Braga.
Who has won more matches between SC Braga and Maritimo?
SC Braga have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Braga are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SC Braga at 56%, Maritimo at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Braga and 67% for Maritimo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Braga keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Braga home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Braga play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of SC Braga's games and 78% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Braga vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Braga's matches and 67% of Maritimo's.
Do SC Braga and Maritimo tend to score early?
SC Braga have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Maritimo defy the odds to beat SC Braga 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat SC Braga 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Braga, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Braga 2.32 xG and Maritimo 1.08 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SC Braga fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Braga attack 1.23 / defence 0.97 against Maritimo attack 0.80 / defence 1.65, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Braga 65% | Draw 19% | Maritimo 16%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Maritimo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Braga 53%, Maritimo 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Braga's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Maritimo's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Maritimo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SC Braga (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Maritimo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.