Portimonense 0-0 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Portimonense at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portimonense vs Vizela encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vizela make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Portimão to face Portimonense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Portimonense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.17 goals per game and conceding 0.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.67 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Portimonense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portimonense at Estádio Municipal de Portimão this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.67 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estádio Municipal de Portimão this season.
Vizela (all games): 1W 3D 2L across 6 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Vizela have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Portimonense. A 0.67 PPG lead over Vizela (1.67 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Portimonense — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vizela — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 33% versus Vizela 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 33% | Vizela 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.40 xG and Vizela 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.789 / defence 1.180 | Vizela attack 0.775 / defence 1.647. League average goals — home 1.076 / away 1.147. Portimonense's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.647 — this is suppressing Portimonense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Portimonense games / 6 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 41% | Draw 34% | Vizela 24%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.44 | Draw 2.94 | Vizela 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portimonense at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portimonense if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. This conflicts with form data: Portimonense 33% | Vizela 33% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 41% | Draw 34% | Vizela 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Portimonense 1.40 / Vizela 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.789 / def 1.180 | Vizela attack 0.775 / def 1.647 | league avg home 1.076 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Vizela xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Vizela kick off?
Portimonense vs Vizela kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Vizela?
Portimonense 0 - 0 Vizela.
Where is Portimonense vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Vizela part of?
Portimonense vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 41% chance of winning, Vizela a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Portimonense and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Vizela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portimonense and Vizela in?
Portimonense (all comps): 3W-1D-2L in 6 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 0.67 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Vizela (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Portimonense's attack rating (0.79) and Vizela's defence rating (1.65), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.78x) against Portimonense's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.5%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
41%
2.43
34%
2.90
24%
4.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.45
1.05
Vizela xG
2.43
41%
Home win
2.90
34%
Draw
4.09
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
14%
6.94
6%
16.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.05 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Vizela?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portimonense's recent record stands at 3W 1D 2L from 6 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Portimonense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 2L across 6 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Portimonense by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vizela heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Portimonense have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Vizela's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vizela's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portimonense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portimonense are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vizela in 67%.
Last 6 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Early Season
Vizela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Vizela in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 3W 1D 2L in their last 6 games (1.67 PPG), while Vizela have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Vizela away?
Portimonense's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.00 PPG; Vizela away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Vizela in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Portimonense
3
Draws
2
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 1, Vizela have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Portimonense 0-0 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Vizela?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portimonense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Vizela see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Portimonense) and 33% (Vizela) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Portimonense and 100% for Vizela. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portimonense have failed to score in 67% of games; Vizela in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Portimonense's recent matches and 33% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Portimonense's matches and 100% of Vizela's.
Do Portimonense and Vizela tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Vizela in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Portimonense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 7, as Portimonense and Vizela drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.40 xG and Vizela 1.05 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Portimonense fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Vizela landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Vizela attack 0.78 / defence 1.65, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 41% | Draw 34% | Vizela 24%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 33%, Vizela 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vizela's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Portimonense arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Portimonense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Vizela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.