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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Farense.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Farense 3-1 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 20, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.45 xG and Farense 0.66 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sporting CP beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.28 / defence 0.79 against Farense attack 0.73 / defence 0.81, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 56% | Draw 28% | Farense 17%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 74%, Farense 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.

Farense's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.58 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Farense (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights