🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Sporting CP (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sporting CP face Farense.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Sporting CP welcome Farense to Estádio José Alvalade. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 February 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Sporting CP have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Estádio José Alvalade, Sporting CP have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio José Alvalade. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Sporting CP are significantly better at Estádio José Alvalade than their overall form suggests.

Farense — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Farense, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Farense have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

Sporting CP carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H Record

The fixture history tells a clear story: Sporting CP have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Farense have managed just 0 wins.

The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 5–0 with Sporting CP winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sporting CP and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 5.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Sporting CP trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.

Farense trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sporting CP 47% versus Farense 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sporting CP 74% | Farense 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sporting CP 1.45 xG and Farense 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sporting CP attack 1.279 / defence 0.793 | Farense attack 0.727 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.152. Sporting CP carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sporting CP's defence rating of 0.793 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Sporting CP games / 53 Farense games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Sporting CP 56% | Draw 28% | Farense 17%. Fair-value odds: Sporting CP 1.79 | Draw 3.57 | Farense 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.11 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 5.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sporting CP 30% | Farense 40% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights