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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Famalicao 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Famalicao 1-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 2.45 xG and Famalicao 0.60 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sporting CP fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.52 / defence 0.66 against Famalicao attack 0.75 / defence 1.03, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 78% | Draw 15% | Famalicao 7%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 78%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 67%, Famalicao 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.

Famalicao's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights