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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 22

Kick-off

Sun 15 Feb 2026

20:30

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

78%

Sporting CP

1.28

15%

Draw

6.78

7%

Famalicao

13.97

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

14.2%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 0

11.6%

Home win

3 – 0

11.6%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.45

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

3.04

0.60

Famalicao xG

78%
15%
Sporting CPDrawFamalicao

1.28

78%

Home win

6.78

15%

Draw

13.97

7%

Away win

Goals Markets

81%

Over 1.5

1.23

19%

Under 1.5

5.26

59%

Over 2.5

1.69

41%

Under 2.5

2.44

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

41%

BTTS Yes

2.43

59%

BTTS No

1.70

Clean Sheet

55%

Sporting CP

1.82

9%

Famalicao

11.54

Win to Nil

43%

Sporting CP

2.33

1%

Famalicao

161.20

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.8 2.9 0.9 0.2
1 11.6 7.0 2.1 0.4 0.1
2 14.2 8.5 2.6 0.5 0.1
3 11.6 7.0 2.1 0.4 0.1
4 7.1 4.3 1.3 0.3
5 3.5 2.1 0.6 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.446
λ Away (xG) 0.599
Total xG 3.045
League avg home goals 1.563
League avg away goals 1.219
Sporting CP attack strength 1.521
Sporting CP defence strength 0.655
Famalicao attack strength 0.751
Famalicao defence strength 1.028
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 55 / 55