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Prediction vindicated as Sporting CP edge out Benfica 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Benfica 1-0 at Estádio José Alvalade, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sporting CP 1.59 xG and Benfica 1.26 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benfica landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sporting CP attack 1.43 / defence 0.95 against Benfica attack 1.18 / defence 0.81, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sporting CP 45% | Draw 25% | Benfica 30%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sporting CP 76%, Benfica 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sporting CP's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.

Benfica's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sporting CP 2.59 PPG, Benfica 2.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sporting CP win broke the near-deadlock. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights