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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sun 29 Dec 2024

20:30

Venue

Estádio José Alvalade

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Sporting CP Win

45%

Sporting CP

2.22

25%

Draw

4.03

30%

Benfica

3.33

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.6%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.2%

Home win

2 – 1

9.2%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.59

Sporting CP xG

Total xG

2.85

1.26

Benfica xG

45%
25%
30%
Sporting CPDrawBenfica

2.22

45%

Home win

4.03

25%

Draw

3.33

30%

Away win

Goals Markets

78%

Over 1.5

1.28

22%

Under 1.5

4.55

54%

Over 2.5

1.85

46%

Under 2.5

2.17

32%

Over 3.5

3.12

68%

Under 3.5

1.47

16%

Over 4.5

6.25

84%

Under 4.5

1.19

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.33

Clean Sheet

28%

Sporting CP

3.52

20%

Benfica

4.93

Win to Nil

13%

Sporting CP

7.79

6%

Benfica

16.42

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.8 7.3 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.2
1 9.2 11.6 7.3 3.1 1.0 0.2
2 7.3 9.2 5.8 2.4 0.8 0.2
3 3.9 4.9 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
4 1.6 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.2
5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.595
λ Away (xG) 1.258
Total xG 2.853
League avg home goals 1.381
League avg away goals 1.122
Sporting CP attack strength 1.428
Sporting CP defence strength 0.948
Benfica attack strength 1.182
Benfica defence strength 0.809
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49