Portimonense 1-2 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Portimão plays host to Portimonense versus Maritimo in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 9 January 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Portimonense's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Portimonense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Portimonense have posted 2W 2D 4L at Estádio Municipal de Portimão — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Maritimo (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Maritimo have gone 1W 2D 5L from 8 away fixtures this term (0.62 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Portimonense, 1.10 for Maritimo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Portimonense half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Maritimo half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portimonense 25% versus Maritimo 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 38% | Maritimo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.36 xG and Maritimo 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.706 / defence 1.127 | Maritimo attack 0.720 / defence 1.699. League average goals — home 1.136 / away 1.410. Portimonense's attack strength of 0.706 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.699 — this is suppressing Portimonense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Portimonense games / 16 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 41% | Draw 28% | Maritimo 31%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Maritimo 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portimonense at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portimonense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Portimonense 25% | Maritimo 75%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 41% | Draw 28% | Maritimo 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Portimonense 1.36 / Maritimo 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.706 / def 1.127 | Maritimo attack 0.720 / def 1.699 | league avg home 1.136 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Maritimo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Maritimo kick off?
Portimonense vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Maritimo?
Portimonense 1 - 2 Maritimo.
Where is Portimonense vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Maritimo part of?
Portimonense vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 41% chance of winning, Maritimo a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Portimonense and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Maritimo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portimonense and Maritimo in?
Portimonense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Maritimo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Portimonense's attack at 0.71x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.72x) against Portimonense's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
41%
2.43
28%
3.58
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.51
1.15
Maritimo xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.63
8%
12.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Portimonense and 1.15 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portimonense's recent record stands at 7W 3D 6L from 16 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Portimonense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Maritimo, meanwhile, have gone 4W 5D 7L across 16 games — 1.06 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Portimonense by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Maritimo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Portimonense have managed 2W 2D 4L from 8 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.50 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Maritimo's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Maritimo's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portimonense are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.25 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Portimonense have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Maritimo in 62%.
Defensively: Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Blended
Maritimo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 games (1.50 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 4W 5D 7L in their last 16 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portimonense at home or Maritimo away?
Portimonense's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portimonense at home: 1.00 PPG; Maritimo away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Portimonense or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Maritimo in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Portimonense go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Portimonense
0
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 3, Maritimo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 18 February 2023, when Portimonense 2-1 Maritimo.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Maritimo?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portimonense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portimonense 25%, Maritimo 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Portimonense) and 62% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Portimonense have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Portimonense's recent matches and 75% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Portimonense's recent games and 62% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Maritimo tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Maritimo defy the odds to beat Portimonense 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Portimonense 1-2 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.36 xG and Maritimo 1.15 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Maritimo outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.71 / defence 1.13 against Maritimo attack 0.72 / defence 1.70, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 41% | Draw 28% | Maritimo 31%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Maritimo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 38%, Maritimo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Maritimo's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Portimonense arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Maritimo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Portimonense (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Maritimo (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.