🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out GIL Vicente 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santa Clara beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.27 xG and GIL Vicente 1.21 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against GIL Vicente attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 38% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 35%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 32%, GIL Vicente 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.37 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights