Santa Clara 1-0 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 38%, yet in-form GIL Vicente provide a compelling counter-argument — this Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santa Clara host GIL Vicente at Estádio de São Miguel in Primeira Liga (matchday 27). Kick-off is Saturday 21 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Santa Clara — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Santa Clara at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, GIL Vicente stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
GIL Vicente's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour GIL Vicente — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Santa Clara have won 4, GIL Vicente 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2025, ended Santa Clara 0–1 GIL Vicente — a GIL Vicente win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Santa Clara in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
GIL Vicente in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 42% versus GIL Vicente 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santa Clara 32% | GIL Vicente 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.27 xG and GIL Vicente 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.819 / defence 1.000 | GIL Vicente attack 1.047 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.154. Data: built from Santa Clara's last 60 games and GIL Vicente's last 60.
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 38% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 35%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.63 | Draw 3.69 | GIL Vicente 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santa Clara at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form GIL Vicente (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santa Clara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Santa Clara 40% (last 10 home games) | GIL Vicente 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Saturday 21 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 38% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Santa Clara 1.27 / GIL Vicente 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.819 / def 1.000 | GIL Vicente attack 1.047 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
1.21
GIL Vicente xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente FAQs
What time does Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Santa Clara 1 - 0 GIL Vicente.
Where is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente part of?
Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 38% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Santa Clara and GIL Vicente will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, GIL Vicente's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Santa Clara's last 60 games and GIL Vicente's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.69
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.48
1.21
GIL Vicente xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
11%
8.81
10%
10.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Santa Clara and 1.21 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 13D 24L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 1.27 PPG from 60 outings (19W 19D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.37 PPG, GIL Vicente on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 14W 4D 12L across their last 30 home games, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, GIL Vicente have taken 1.07 points per game from their last 30 away games (7W 11D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.22 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
Santa Clara (Home) vs GIL Vicente (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Santa Clara
Blended
GIL Vicente
Blended
❓ Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente Form FAQs
What form are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 19W 19D 22L in their last 60 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or GIL Vicente away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.53 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Santa Clara's record when hosting GIL Vicente specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Santa Clara
1
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Santa Clara have won 5, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and GIL Vicente last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: Santa Clara 1-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and GIL Vicente?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
GIL Vicente are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 37%, GIL Vicente 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Santa Clara) and 50% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Santa Clara have failed to score in 33% of games; GIL Vicente in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Santa Clara vs GIL Vicente Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Santa Clara and GIL Vicente matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 53% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Santa Clara and GIL Vicente matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Santa Clara's recent games and 50% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and GIL Vicente matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 70% of GIL Vicente's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out GIL Vicente 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat GIL Vicente 1-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.27 xG and GIL Vicente 1.21 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. GIL Vicente landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against GIL Vicente attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 38% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 35%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 32%, GIL Vicente 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.37 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Santa Clara win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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