🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Famalicao defy the odds to beat Santa Clara 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Santa Clara 0-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.84 xG and Famalicao 0.73 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.69 / defence 0.77 against Famalicao attack 0.77 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 35% | Draw 36% | Famalicao 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 31%, Famalicao 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Famalicao's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.45 PPG, Famalicao 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights