Santa Clara 0-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Santa Clara take on Famalicao.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Famalicao travel to Estádio de São Miguel to take on Santa Clara. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara at Estádio de São Miguel this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Famalicao have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Famalicao have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Santa Clara at 0.90 PPG versus Famalicao's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Santa Clara have won 2, Famalicao 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Santa Clara trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Famalicao trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santa Clara 41% versus Famalicao 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santa Clara 31% | Famalicao 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 0.84 xG and Famalicao 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 0.688 / defence 0.765 | Famalicao attack 0.765 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.253. Santa Clara's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Santa Clara's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Santa Clara games / 51 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 35% | Draw 36% | Famalicao 29%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Famalicao 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Famalicao's lower xG of 0.73 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 29% on No. Form rates corroborate: Santa Clara 40% | Famalicao 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 35% | Draw 36% | Famalicao 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 29% | xG Santa Clara 0.84 / Famalicao 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 0.688 / def 0.765 | Famalicao attack 0.765 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Famalicao xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Famalicao kick off?
Santa Clara vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Santa Clara 0 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Santa Clara vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Famalicao part of?
Santa Clara vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 35% chance of winning, Famalicao a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Santa Clara and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
Record (7 meetings): Santa Clara 2W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 4W.
What form are Santa Clara and Famalicao in?
Santa Clara (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Santa Clara's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Famalicao's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 53% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.85
36%
2.80
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.4%
Home win
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
1.57
0.73
Famalicao xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.40
71%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.8 | 15.3 | 5.6 | 1.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.4 | 12.8 | 4.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.5%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.73 for Famalicao, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santa Clara come into this having played 51 games, going 21W 11D 19L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.37 PPG from 51 outings (18W 16D 17L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santa Clara on 1.45 PPG, Famalicao on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Santa Clara's home form reads 13W 4D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.24 points per game from 25 outings (8W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santa Clara come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santa Clara are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.25 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santa Clara and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Santa Clara have gone 21W 11D 19L in their last 51 games (1.45 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 18W 16D 17L in their last 51 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santa Clara at home or Famalicao away?
Santa Clara's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santa Clara at home: 1.72 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Santa Clara or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santa Clara have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Famalicao in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when Famalicao won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santa Clara's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Santa Clara
1
Draws
5
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
From 9 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 3, Famalicao have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Santa Clara 1-0 Famalicao.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santa Clara see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santa Clara 36%, Famalicao 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Santa Clara) and 52% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Santa Clara keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Santa Clara have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santa Clara play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Santa Clara's recent matches and 60% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santa Clara vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Santa Clara's recent games and 52% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santa Clara and Famalicao tend to score early?
Santa Clara have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Famalicao defy the odds to beat Santa Clara 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Santa Clara 0-1 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 18, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.84 xG and Famalicao 0.73 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Santa Clara fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.69 / defence 0.77 against Famalicao attack 0.77 / defence 0.84, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 35% | Draw 36% | Famalicao 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Famalicao win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 46% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 31%, Famalicao 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santa Clara's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Famalicao's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santa Clara 1.45 PPG, Famalicao 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Famalicao win broke the near-deadlock. Santa Clara (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.