Santa Clara 0-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santa Clara at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santa Clara vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Casa Pia travel to Estádio de São Miguel to take on Santa Clara. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santa Clara stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Santa Clara haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Estádio de São Miguel, Santa Clara have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Santa Clara are significantly better at Estádio de São Miguel than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santa Clara 1.81 xG and Casa Pia 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santa Clara attack 1.020 / defence 0.985 | Casa Pia attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.053. Data: 34 Santa Clara games / 0 Casa Pia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Santa Clara 59% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 18%. Fair-value odds: Santa Clara 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Casa Pia 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Santa Clara (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santa Clara are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santa Clara vs Casa Pia | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio de São Miguel • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santa Clara 59% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG Santa Clara 1.81 / Casa Pia 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Santa Clara attack 1.020 / def 0.985 | Casa Pia attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Santa Clara xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Casa Pia xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santa Clara vs Casa Pia kick off?
Santa Clara vs Casa Pia kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Estádio de São Miguel.
What was the final score in Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Santa Clara 0 - 0 Casa Pia.
Where is Santa Clara vs Casa Pia being played?
The match is being played at Estádio de São Miguel.
What competition is Santa Clara vs Casa Pia part of?
Santa Clara vs Casa Pia is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Our statistical model gives Santa Clara a 59% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Santa Clara and Casa Pia will score (BTTS).
Will Santa Clara vs Casa Pia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Casa Pia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Santa Clara and Casa Pia in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Santa Clara (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Santa Clara's attack at 1.02x the league average against Casa Pia's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Casa Pia's attack versus Santa Clara's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.40
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Santa Clara xG
Total xG
2.70
0.88
Casa Pia xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
25%
4.06
3%
34.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Santa Clara and Casa Pia expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Santa Clara and 0.88 for Casa Pia, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Santa Clara vs Casa Pia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santa Clara
Pre-Season
Casa Pia
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santa Clara and Casa Pia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Santa Clara's record when hosting Casa Pia specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Santa Clara
2
Draws
1
Casa Pia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santa Clara and Casa Pia?
From 6 meetings on record, Santa Clara have won 3, Casa Pia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Santa Clara and Casa Pia last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Casa Pia 0-0 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between Santa Clara and Casa Pia?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santa Clara home games / Casa Pia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Santa Clara's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara and Casa Pia finished level at 0-0 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 1.81 xG and Casa Pia 0.88 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Santa Clara fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Casa Pia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Casa Pia attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 59% | Draw 23% | Casa Pia 18%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.