Chaves 0-1 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chaves at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chaves vs Vitória SC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Chaves welcome Vitória SC to Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chaves stand at 1W 0D 1L from 2 Primeira Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Chaves haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Vitória SC — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Vitória SC haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Vitória SC have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Chaves) versus 1.80 (Vitória SC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chaves 1.21 xG and Vitória SC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chaves attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Vitória SC attack 0.969 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.065. Data: 0 Chaves games / 34 Vitória SC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Chaves 37% | Draw 28% | Vitória SC 36%. Fair-value odds: Chaves 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Vitória SC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chaves at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chaves vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chaves 37% | Draw 28% | Vitória SC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Chaves 1.21 / Vitória SC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Chaves attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Vitória SC attack 0.969 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Chaves (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Chaves xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Vitória SC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chaves vs Vitória SC kick off?
Chaves vs Vitória SC kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What was the final score in Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Chaves 0 - 1 Vitória SC.
Where is Chaves vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira.
What competition is Chaves vs Vitória SC part of?
Chaves vs Vitória SC is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Chaves a 37% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Chaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Chaves and Vitória SC will score (BTTS).
Will Chaves vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Vitória SC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Chaves and Vitória SC in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Chaves (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Chaves's attack rating (0.85) and Vitória SC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitória SC's attack versus Chaves's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chaves Win
37%
2.73
28%
3.61
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Chaves xG
Total xG
2.39
1.19
Vitória SC xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
11%
8.93
11%
9.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Chaves and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Chaves and 1.19 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Chaves vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Chaves's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-L in the last five. Chaves haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Vitória SC, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 0L across 2 games — 2.00 PPG, with D-W in their last five. Vitória SC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Vitória SC by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Chaves heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Chaves are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 3.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. Vitória SC's attacking output running into Chaves's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Chaves have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Vitória SC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chaves
Pre-Season
Vitória SC
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chaves and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Chaves have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 (2.00 PPG).
Have Chaves or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chaves have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Chaves and Vitória SC runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Vitória SC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Oct 2023, when Vitória SC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Chaves's record when hosting Vitória SC specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Chaves
0
Draws
4
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chaves and Vitória SC?
From 4 meetings on record, Chaves have won 0, Vitória SC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chaves and Vitória SC last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2024, when Chaves 1-2 Vitória SC.
Who has won more matches between Chaves and Vitória SC?
Vitória SC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chaves home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chaves play Vitória SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Chaves's recent matches and 50% of Vitória SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chaves vs Vitória SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Chaves's recent games and 50% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chaves and Vitória SC tend to score early?
Chaves have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Vitória SC in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitória SC defy the odds to beat Chaves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitória SC beat Chaves 0-1 at Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chaves 1.21 xG and Vitória SC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Chaves fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chaves attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Vitória SC attack 0.97 / defence 0.94, drawn from 0/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chaves 37% | Draw 28% | Vitória SC 36%, with Chaves to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Vitória SC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chaves 0%, Vitória SC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Vitória SC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. That form edge translated into the three points. Chaves managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Vitória SC managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.