Benfica 4-0 Arouca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Arouca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Benfica welcome Arouca to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica. Kick-off is set for Friday 5 August 2022 at 20:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Benfica — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Benfica haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Benfica's home record at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Arouca have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arouca haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Arouca have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Benfica carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Benfica register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Arouca in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Benfica, 0 for Arouca and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Benfica winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Benfica in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Arouca in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 59% versus Arouca 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 59% | Arouca 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.52 xG and Arouca 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.044 / defence 0.943 | Arouca attack 0.940 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.122. Data: 34 Benfica games / 34 Arouca games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Benfica 49% | Draw 26% | Arouca 25%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Arouca 4.00. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Benfica are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Benfica 60% | Arouca 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Arouca | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Friday 5 Aug 2022, 20:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 49% | Draw 26% | Arouca 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Benfica 1.52 / Arouca 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.044 / def 0.943 | Arouca attack 0.940 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Benfica (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Arouca xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Arouca kick off?
Benfica vs Arouca kicked off at 20:15 on Friday 5 August 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Arouca?
Benfica 4 - 0 Arouca.
Where is Benfica vs Arouca being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Arouca part of?
Benfica vs Arouca is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Arouca?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 49% chance of winning, Arouca a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Arouca?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Benfica and Arouca will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Arouca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Arouca?
Record (2 meetings): Benfica 2W | Draws 0 | Arouca 0W.
What form are Benfica and Arouca in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Benfica's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Arouca's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Arouca's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
49%
2.03
26%
3.82
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.51
0.99
Arouca xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.50
5%
18.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Arouca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Benfica and Arouca expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Benfica and 0.99 for Arouca, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Arouca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Benfica's recent record stands at 23W 5D 6L from 34 games, a 2.18 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. Benfica haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Arouca, meanwhile, have gone 7W 10D 17L across 34 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. Arouca haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arouca heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Benfica have managed 10W 3D 4L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arouca's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Benfica are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Arouca are on 0.88 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Pre-Season
Arouca
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Arouca in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 23W 5D 6L in their last 34 games (2.18 PPG), while Arouca have gone 7W 10D 17L in their last 34 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Arouca away?
Benfica's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 1.94 PPG; Arouca away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Benfica or Arouca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Arouca in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Benfica and Arouca runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 May 2024, when Benfica won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Arouca specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Benfica
1
Draws
0
Arouca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Arouca?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 9, Arouca have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Arouca last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Arouca 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Arouca?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Arouca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 65%, Arouca 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Benfica) and 53% (Arouca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arouca in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Arouca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Arouca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Benfica's games and 59% of Arouca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benfica vs Arouca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Benfica's matches and 53% of Arouca's.
Do Benfica and Arouca tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Arouca in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benfica run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Arouca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Arouca 4-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 1, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.52 xG and Arouca 0.99 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arouca landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Arouca attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 49% | Draw 26% | Arouca 25%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 59%, Arouca 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Arouca's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.