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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Santa Clara 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Santa Clara 1-2 at Estádio de São Miguel, Regular Season - 22, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Santa Clara 0.65 xG and Benfica 1.55 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santa Clara attack 0.70 / defence 1.01 against Benfica attack 1.24 / defence 0.61, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Santa Clara 16% | Draw 25% | Benfica 59%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santa Clara 31%, Benfica 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Santa Clara's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Benfica's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Santa Clara (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights