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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rio Ave defy the odds to beat Estrela 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rio Ave beat Estrela 2-1 at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Rio Ave 1.25 xG and Estrela 1.27 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rio Ave attack 0.71 / defence 1.21 against Estrela attack 0.89 / defence 1.19, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Rio Ave 36% | Draw 27% | Estrela 37%, with Estrela to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Rio Ave win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rio Ave 54%, Estrela 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Rio Ave's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Estrela's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Rio Ave 1.05 PPG, Estrela 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rio Ave win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights