Portimonense 0-1 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portimonense at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portimonense vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
GIL Vicente make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Portimão to face Portimonense in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 August 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Portimonense (all games): 1W 0D 0L across 1 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Portimonense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
GIL Vicente have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 3.00 for Portimonense, 3.00 for GIL Vicente — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Portimonense have seen both teams score in just 0% of their games, GIL Vicente in only 0%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.17 xG and GIL Vicente 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.971 / defence 1.150 | GIL Vicente attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 0.772. Data: 1 Portimonense games / 1 GIL Vicente games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Portimonense 46% | Draw 31% | GIL Vicente 24%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | GIL Vicente 4.17. Portimonense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Portimonense are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portimonense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Aug 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 46% | Draw 31% | GIL Vicente 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Portimonense 1.17 / GIL Vicente 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.971 / def 1.150 | GIL Vicente attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.046 / away 0.772 • Poisson stance: Portimonense (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
0.76
GIL Vicente xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Portimonense vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 15 August 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs GIL Vicente?
Portimonense 0 - 1 GIL Vicente.
Where is Portimonense vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs GIL Vicente part of?
Portimonense vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 46% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 24% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Portimonense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Portimonense and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and GIL Vicente?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portimonense and GIL Vicente in?
Portimonense (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W. GIL Vicente (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Portimonense's attack at 0.97x the league average against GIL Vicente's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.85x) against Portimonense's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
46%
2.19
31%
3.26
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Portimonense xG
Total xG
1.92
0.76
GIL Vicente xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
7%
13.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.1 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Portimonense and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Portimonense and 0.76 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portimonense come into this having played 1 games, going 1W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W. It's still early in the season for Portimonense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, GIL Vicente sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for Portimonense against 3.00 for GIL Vicente. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portimonense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. GIL Vicente's attacking output running into Portimonense's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Portimonense have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; GIL Vicente in 0%.
Defensively: Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; GIL Vicente in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Early Season
GIL Vicente
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Portimonense or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: GIL Vicente have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 12 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Portimonense
0
Draws
4
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and GIL Vicente?
From 6 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 2, GIL Vicente have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Portimonense 0-2 GIL Vicente.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and GIL Vicente?
GIL Vicente have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Portimonense's recent matches and 0% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Portimonense's recent games and 100% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and GIL Vicente tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, GIL Vicente in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Portimonense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente beat Portimonense 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.17 xG and GIL Vicente 0.76 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portimonense fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against GIL Vicente attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 46% | Draw 31% | GIL Vicente 24%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a GIL Vicente win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 0%, GIL Vicente 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portimonense 3.00 PPG, GIL Vicente 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. Portimonense managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.