Belenenses 1-2 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Belenenses at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Belenenses vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Maritimo travel to Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa to take on Belenenses. The game is scheduled for Monday 16 August 2021, 21:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Belenenses have gone 0W 0D 1L from 1 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Belenenses have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Maritimo stand at 0W 0D 1L from 1 Primeira Liga matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.00 PPG (Belenenses) versus 0.00 (Maritimo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Belenenses's 0% and Maritimo's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Belenenses 1.19 xG and Maritimo 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Belenenses attack 0.964 / defence 1.150 | Maritimo attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 0.890. Data: 1 Belenenses games / 1 Maritimo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Belenenses 43% | Draw 30% | Maritimo 27%. Fair-value odds: Belenenses 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Maritimo 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Belenenses as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Belenenses offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Belenenses vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa • Kick-off: Monday 16 Aug 2021, 21:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Belenenses 43% | Draw 30% | Maritimo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Belenenses 1.19 / Maritimo 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Belenenses attack 0.964 / def 1.150 | Maritimo attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.071 / away 0.890 • Poisson stance: Belenenses (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Belenenses xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Maritimo xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Belenenses vs Maritimo kick off?
Belenenses vs Maritimo kicked off at 21:15 on Monday 16 August 2021 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What was the final score in Belenenses vs Maritimo?
Belenenses 1 - 2 Maritimo.
Where is Belenenses vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa.
What competition is Belenenses vs Maritimo part of?
Belenenses vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Belenenses vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Belenenses a 43% chance of winning, Maritimo a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Belenenses the favourite.
Will both teams score in Belenenses vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Belenenses and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Belenenses vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Maritimo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Belenenses and Maritimo in?
Belenenses (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Maritimo (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Belenenses's attack rating (0.96) and Maritimo's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Maritimo's attack versus Belenenses's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Belenenses Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.36
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Belenenses xG
Total xG
2.06
0.87
Maritimo xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
8%
12.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.1 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Belenenses vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Belenenses and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Belenenses and 0.87 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Belenenses vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Belenenses come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Belenenses, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Maritimo sit at 0.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 0D 1L), a run that reads L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Belenenses on 0.00 PPG, Maritimo on 0.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Belenenses are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 0.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Belenenses have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Maritimo in 0%.
Last 1 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Belenenses
Early Season
Maritimo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Belenenses and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Belenenses have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Belenenses and Maritimo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Belenenses
1
Draws
1
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Belenenses and Maritimo?
From 2 meetings on record, Belenenses have won 0, Maritimo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Belenenses and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2022, when Maritimo 1-1 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Belenenses and Maritimo?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Belenenses home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Belenenses play Maritimo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Belenenses's recent matches and 0% of Maritimo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Belenenses vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Belenenses's recent games and 0% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Belenenses and Maritimo tend to score early?
Belenenses have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Maritimo defy the odds to beat Belenenses 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Belenenses 1-2 at Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa, Regular Season - 2, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Belenenses 1.19 xG and Maritimo 0.87 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Maritimo outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Belenenses attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Maritimo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Belenenses 43% | Draw 30% | Maritimo 27%, with Belenenses to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Maritimo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Belenenses 0%, Maritimo 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Belenenses 0.00 PPG, Maritimo 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Maritimo win broke the near-deadlock. Belenenses scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Maritimo scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.