GIL Vicente 0-2 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Benfica fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIL Vicente host Benfica at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIL Vicente stand at 2W 0D 0L from 2 Primeira Liga matches — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica — All Games: 2W 0D 0L from 2 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: GIL Vicente 3.00 PPG, Benfica 3.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.46 xG and Benfica 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.200 / defence 1.016 | Benfica attack 0.946 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.106 / away 1.031. Data: 2 GIL Vicente games / 2 Benfica games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 48% | Draw 26% | Benfica 26%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Benfica 3.85. GIL Vicente hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIL Vicente are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 48% | Draw 26% | Benfica 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG GIL Vicente 1.46 / Benfica 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.200 / def 1.016 | Benfica attack 0.946 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.106 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Benfica xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Benfica kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Benfica kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
GIL Vicente 0 - 2 Benfica.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Benfica part of?
GIL Vicente vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 48% chance of winning, Benfica a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both GIL Vicente and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIL Vicente and Benfica in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W. Benfica (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIL Vicente's attack at 1.20x the league average against Benfica's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus GIL Vicente's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
48%
2.09
26%
3.79
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.45
0.99
Benfica xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
6%
16.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.99 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, GIL Vicente have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica's form line: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: GIL Vicente on 3.00 PPG, Benfica on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
GIL Vicente are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.00 scored and 0.50 conceded. GIL Vicente's scoring rate against Benfica's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: GIL Vicente have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games; Benfica in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Benfica in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Benfica have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have GIL Vicente or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Benfica in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIL Vicente and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 8 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Benfica won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIL Vicente's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
GIL Vicente
0
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 1, Benfica have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when GIL Vicente 1-2 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Benfica?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 50% of Benfica's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 50% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Benfica tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Benfica in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over GIL Vicente.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat GIL Vicente 0-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 3, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.46 xG and Benfica 0.99 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. GIL Vicente fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Benfica outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.20 / defence 1.02 against Benfica attack 0.95 / defence 1.10, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 48% | Draw 26% | Benfica 26%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Benfica win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 50%, Benfica 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIL Vicente 3.00 PPG, Benfica 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benfica win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.