Pacos Ferreira 2-0 Maritimo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Maritimo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Maritimo make the trip to Estádio da Capital do Móvel to face Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pacos Ferreira's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pacos Ferreira have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estádio da Capital do Móvel — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Maritimo have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Maritimo away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Pacos Ferreira. A 0.50 PPG lead over Maritimo (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Pacos Ferreira register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Maritimo in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Pacos Ferreira 0W, Maritimo 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Maritimo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pacos Ferreira — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Maritimo — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 46% versus Maritimo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacos Ferreira 36% | Maritimo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.25 xG and Maritimo 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 1.010 / defence 1.268 | Maritimo attack 0.878 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.019 / away 1.294. Maritimo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Pacos Ferreira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Pacos Ferreira games / 28 Maritimo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 30% | Draw 31% | Maritimo 39%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Maritimo 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Maritimo are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pacos Ferreira (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pacos Ferreira 70% | Maritimo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 30% | Draw 31% | Maritimo 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.25 / Maritimo 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 1.010 / def 1.268 | Maritimo attack 0.878 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.019 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Maritimo xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo?
Pacos Ferreira 2 - 0 Maritimo.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 30% chance of winning, Maritimo a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo?
Record (1 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 0W | Draws 0 | Maritimo 1W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Maritimo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pacos Ferreira's attack at 1.01x the league average against Maritimo's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Maritimo's attack (0.88x) against Pacos Ferreira's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
30%
3.30
31%
3.25
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.69
1.44
Maritimo xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
7%
13.93
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 1.44 for Maritimo, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Pacos Ferreira have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 8W 9D 11L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Maritimo's form line: 8W 9D 11L from 28 games, 1.18 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Pacos Ferreira against 1.18 for Maritimo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pacos Ferreira have posted 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L).
On the road, Maritimo have gone 5W 3D 6L from 14 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Maritimo are on 1.14 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Current Season
Maritimo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Maritimo have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Maritimo away?
Maritimo's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 1.21 PPG; Maritimo away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Maritimo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Maritimo in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Maritimo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Maritimo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
0
Draws
3
Maritimo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo?
From 4 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Maritimo have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Maritimo 3-1 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 64%, Maritimo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Pacos Ferreira) and 57% (Maritimo).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Maritimo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Maritimo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Pacos Ferreira's games and 64% of Maritimo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Maritimo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 57% of Maritimo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Maritimo tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Maritimo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pacos Ferreira cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Maritimo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Maritimo 2-0 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.25 xG and Maritimo 1.44 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Maritimo landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 1.01 / defence 1.27 against Maritimo attack 0.88 / defence 1.22, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 30% | Draw 31% | Maritimo 39%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Pacos Ferreira win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 36%, Maritimo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Maritimo's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 1.18 PPG, Maritimo 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacos Ferreira win broke the near-deadlock. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.