Maritimo 4-0 Boavista – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Boavista at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Maritimo vs Boavista fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Maritimo and Boavista meet at Estádio dos Barreiros in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Maritimo (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Maritimo's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Estádio dos Barreiros this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Boavista's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Boavista's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Maritimo against 1.40 for Boavista. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Maritimo lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Maritimo half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Boavista half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Maritimo 55% and Boavista 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 41% | Boavista 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.00 xG and Boavista 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.767 / defence 1.162 | Boavista attack 0.855 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.045 / away 1.227. Maritimo's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Boavista bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Maritimo games / 29 Boavista games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 29% | Draw 32% | Boavista 40%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Boavista 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Boavista are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Boavista if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Maritimo 50% | Boavista 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Boavista | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 29% | Draw 32% | Boavista 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Maritimo 1.00 / Boavista 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.767 / def 1.162 | Boavista attack 0.855 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.045 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Boavista (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Boavista xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Boavista kick off?
Maritimo vs Boavista kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Boavista?
Maritimo 4 - 0 Boavista.
Where is Maritimo vs Boavista being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Boavista part of?
Maritimo vs Boavista is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Boavista?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 29% chance of winning, Boavista a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Boavista the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Boavista?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Maritimo and Boavista will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Boavista have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Boavista?
Record (1 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 1 | Boavista 0W.
What form are Maritimo and Boavista in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Boavista (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Maritimo's attack rating (0.77) and Boavista's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Boavista's attack (0.85x) against Maritimo's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Boavista Win
29%
3.47
32%
3.17
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.22
1.22
Boavista xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
9%
11.73
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Boavista?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Boavista expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Maritimo and 1.22 for Boavista, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Boavista?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Maritimo's recent record stands at 8W 9D 12L from 29 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Boavista, meanwhile, have gone 6W 15D 8L across 29 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-D-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Maritimo against 1.14 for Boavista. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Maritimo have managed 3W 6D 5L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Boavista's away record stands at 2W 6D 6L across 14 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Maritimo are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Boavista are on 1.17 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Boavista in 69%.
Last 29 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Current Season
Boavista
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Boavista in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Boavista have gone 6W 15D 8L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Boavista away?
Maritimo's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.07 PPG; Boavista away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Maritimo won 4-0 on 16 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Boavista — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Maritimo
2
Draws
0
Boavista
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Boavista?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 2, Boavista have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Boavista last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2023, when Maritimo 4-2 Boavista.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Boavista?
Maritimo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Boavista are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 50%, Boavista 79% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Maritimo) and 57% (Boavista).
On the defensive side: Maritimo have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Boavista away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Boavista?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Maritimo's games and 79% of Boavista's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Maritimo vs Boavista usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Maritimo's recent games and 57% of Boavista's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Boavista tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Boavista in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Maritimo run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Boavista.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Maritimo beat Boavista 4-0 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.00 xG and Boavista 1.22 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Maritimo beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Boavista landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.77 / defence 1.16 against Boavista attack 0.85 / defence 1.25, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 29% | Draw 32% | Boavista 40%, with Boavista to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Maritimo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 41%, Boavista 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Boavista's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 1.14 PPG, Boavista 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Maritimo win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Boavista (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.