Benfica 3-1 Belenenses – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benfica at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benfica vs Belenenses encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Belenenses make the trip to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to face Benfica in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Benfica (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Benfica at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Belenenses's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Belenenses's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Benfica's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Benfica 1W, Belenenses 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 7.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 7–0 with Benfica winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Benfica goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Belenenses goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 68% versus Belenenses 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 68% | Belenenses 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.86 xG and Belenenses 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.397 / defence 1.066 | Belenenses attack 0.493 / defence 1.304. League average goals — home 1.024 / away 1.280. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.397 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Belenenses bring a strong defensive rating of 1.304 — this is suppressing Benfica's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Benfica games / 28 Belenenses games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 64% | Draw 25% | Belenenses 11%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.56 | Draw 4.00 | Belenenses 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (64%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 80% | Belenenses 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Belenenses | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 64% | Draw 25% | Belenenses 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 43% | xG Benfica 1.86 / Belenenses 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.397 / def 1.066 | Belenenses attack 0.493 / def 1.304 | league avg home 1.024 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Benfica (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Belenenses xG
43%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Belenenses kick off?
Benfica vs Belenenses kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Belenenses?
Benfica 3 - 1 Belenenses.
Where is Benfica vs Belenenses being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.
What competition is Benfica vs Belenenses part of?
Benfica vs Belenenses is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Belenenses?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 64% chance of winning, Belenenses a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Belenenses?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Benfica and Belenenses will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Belenenses have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Belenenses?
Record (1 meetings): Benfica 1W | Draws 0 | Belenenses 0W.
What form are Benfica and Belenenses in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Belenenses (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.40x the league average against Belenenses's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Belenenses's attack (0.49x) against Benfica's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.67.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
64%
1.57
25%
3.94
11%
9.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.54
0.67
Belenenses xG
1.57
64%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
9.29
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
33%
3.07
2%
60.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Belenenses?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Benfica and Belenenses expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Benfica and 0.67 for Belenenses, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Belenenses?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Benfica have picked up 2.18 PPG on a 19W 4D 5L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Belenenses's form line: 4W 9D 15L from 28 games, 0.75 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Benfica are the form team by 1.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Belenenses.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Benfica have posted 2.07 PPG from 14 outings (9W 2D 3L).
On the road, Belenenses have gone 0W 6D 8L from 14 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Benfica are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Belenenses are on 0.61 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Benfica have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Current Season
Belenenses
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Belenenses in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 19W 4D 5L in their last 28 games (2.18 PPG), while Belenenses have gone 4W 9D 15L in their last 28 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Belenenses away?
Benfica's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.07 PPG; Belenenses away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Belenenses
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Belenenses?
From 2 meetings on record, Benfica have won 2, Belenenses have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Belenenses last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2022, when Benfica 3-1 Belenenses.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Belenenses?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Belenenses are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 71%, Belenenses 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Benfica) and 14% (Belenenses).
On the defensive side: Belenenses in 71%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Belenenses away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Belenenses?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Benfica's recent matches and 29% of Belenenses's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Belenenses usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Benfica's recent games and 14% of Belenenses's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benfica and Belenenses tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Belenenses in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benfica cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Belenenses.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Belenenses 3-1 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.86 xG and Belenenses 0.67 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Benfica beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.40 / defence 1.07 against Belenenses attack 0.49 / defence 1.30, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 64% | Draw 25% | Belenenses 11%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 68%, Belenenses 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Belenenses's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Belenenses (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.