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Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Nacional 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Famalicao beat Nacional 0-1 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.21 xG and Famalicao 1.42 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nacional fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 1.01 / defence 1.35 against Famalicao attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 30% | Draw 30% | Famalicao 40%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 42%, Famalicao 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Famalicao's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights