Nacional 0-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Famalicao at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nacional vs Famalicao encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nacional host Famalicao at Estádio da Madeira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nacional — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio da Madeira, Nacional have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Famalicao have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Famalicao's 1.90 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Nacional's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Nacional have won 1, Famalicao 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Nacional winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Nacional trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Famalicao trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nacional 42% versus Famalicao 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nacional 42% | Famalicao 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nacional 1.21 xG and Famalicao 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nacional attack 1.015 / defence 1.351 | Famalicao attack 0.880 / defence 0.884. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.197. Data: 43 Nacional games / 43 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nacional 30% | Draw 30% | Famalicao 40%. Fair-value odds: Nacional 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Famalicao 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Famalicao offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Nacional 70% | Famalicao 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nacional vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio da Madeira • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nacional 30% | Draw 30% | Famalicao 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Nacional 1.21 / Famalicao 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Nacional attack 1.015 / def 1.351 | Famalicao attack 0.880 / def 0.884 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Nacional xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Famalicao xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nacional vs Famalicao kick off?
Nacional vs Famalicao kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Estádio da Madeira.
What was the final score in Nacional vs Famalicao?
Nacional 0 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Nacional vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Madeira.
What competition is Nacional vs Famalicao part of?
Nacional vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Nacional vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Nacional a 30% chance of winning, Famalicao a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nacional vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Nacional and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Nacional vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Famalicao?
Record (2 meetings): Nacional 1W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 0W.
What form are Nacional and Famalicao in?
Nacional (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Famalicao (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Nacional's attack at 1.01x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Famalicao's attack versus Nacional's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
30%
3.33
30%
3.32
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Nacional xG
Total xG
2.63
1.42
Famalicao xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
7%
13.85
12%
8.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.4 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nacional vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Nacional and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Nacional and 1.42 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Nacional vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nacional come into this having played 43 games, going 12W 9D 22L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for Nacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.47 PPG from 43 outings (16W 15D 12L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Nacional — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nacional's home form reads 8W 3D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.29 points per game from 21 outings (7W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Nacional are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.26 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nacional
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nacional and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Nacional have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 games (1.05 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 16W 15D 12L in their last 43 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nacional at home or Famalicao away?
Nacional's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nacional at home: 1.29 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Nacional or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nacional have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Famalicao in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nacional and Famalicao runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Famalicao go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Nacional's record when hosting Famalicao specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Nacional
1
Draws
2
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Famalicao?
From 4 meetings on record, Nacional have won 1, Famalicao have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nacional and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Nacional.
Who has won more matches between Nacional and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nacional 52%, Famalicao 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Nacional) and 57% (Famalicao). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nacional have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nacional home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nacional play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Nacional's games and 67% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nacional vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Nacional's matches and 57% of Famalicao's.
Do Nacional and Famalicao tend to score early?
Nacional have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Famalicao edge out Nacional 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao beat Nacional 0-1 at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 10, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 1.21 xG and Famalicao 1.42 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nacional fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 1.01 / defence 1.35 against Famalicao attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nacional 30% | Draw 30% | Famalicao 40%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 42%, Famalicao 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nacional's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Famalicao's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Famalicao arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Famalicao (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.