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Stalemate at Nacional's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio da Madeira, Regular Season - 21, as Nacional and Casa Pia drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nacional 2.40 xG and Casa Pia 1.32 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nacional fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Casa Pia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nacional attack 1.27 / defence 1.21 against Casa Pia attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nacional 61% | Draw 19% | Casa Pia 20%, with Nacional to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nacional 48%, Casa Pia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nacional's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Casa Pia's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nacional 1.00 PPG, Casa Pia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights