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Prediction vindicated as Moreirense edge out Tondela 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Moreirense beat Tondela 1-0 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 16, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.95 xG and Tondela 1.21 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Moreirense fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Tondela landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 1.06 / defence 1.23 against Tondela attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 50/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 55% | Draw 22% | Tondela 23%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 62%, Tondela 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Tondela's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Moreirense arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Moreirense (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Tondela (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights