🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Moreirense at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Moreirense vs Tondela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Moreirense welcome Tondela to Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Kick-off is set for Sunday 11 January 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Moreirense have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Moreirense have posted 4W 3D 3L at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Tondela — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Tondela, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Tondela's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 5L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Moreirense at 1.20 PPG versus Tondela's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Moreirense, 1 for Tondela and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Moreirense winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Moreirense in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).

Tondela in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Moreirense 50% versus Tondela 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Moreirense 62% | Tondela 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Moreirense 1.95 xG and Tondela 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Moreirense attack 1.059 / defence 1.233 | Tondela attack 0.764 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.283. Tondela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Moreirense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Moreirense games / 16 Tondela games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Moreirense 55% | Draw 22% | Tondela 23%. Fair-value odds: Moreirense 1.82 | Draw 4.55 | Tondela 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Moreirense (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Moreirense as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Moreirense 70% | Tondela 38%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights