Maritimo 0-1 Guimaraes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Maritimo at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Guimaraes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Maritimo and Guimaraes meet at Estádio dos Barreiros in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Maritimo have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Maritimo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Maritimo have posted 3W 5D 2L at Estádio dos Barreiros — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Guimaraes's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Guimaraes have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Maritimo's favour (1.80 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Maritimo 0W, Guimaraes 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2021, ended 1–2 with Guimaraes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Maritimo half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Guimaraes half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Maritimo 56% and Guimaraes 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Maritimo 44% | Guimaraes 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.30 xG and Guimaraes 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.865 / defence 0.925 | Guimaraes attack 0.690 / defence 1.463. League average goals — home 1.028 / away 1.283. Guimaraes bring a strong defensive rating of 1.463 — this is suppressing Maritimo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Maritimo games / 25 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 45% | Draw 35% | Guimaraes 20%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 2.22 | Draw 2.86 | Guimaraes 5.00. Maritimo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Maritimo as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Maritimo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Maritimo 50% | Guimaraes 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Guimaraes | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estádio dos Barreiros • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 45% | Draw 35% | Guimaraes 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Maritimo 1.30 / Guimaraes 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.865 / def 0.925 | Guimaraes attack 0.690 / def 1.463 | league avg home 1.028 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Maritimo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Guimaraes xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Guimaraes kick off?
Maritimo vs Guimaraes kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What was the final score in Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Maritimo 0 - 1 Guimaraes.
Where is Maritimo vs Guimaraes being played?
The match is being played at Estádio dos Barreiros.
What competition is Maritimo vs Guimaraes part of?
Maritimo vs Guimaraes is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 45% chance of winning, Guimaraes a 20% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Maritimo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Maritimo and Guimaraes will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Guimaraes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Guimaraes?
Record (1 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 0 | Guimaraes 1W.
What form are Maritimo and Guimaraes in?
Maritimo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Guimaraes (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Maritimo's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Guimaraes's defensive record (1.46x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Guimaraes's attack (0.69x) against Maritimo's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.0%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Maritimo Win
45%
2.24
35%
2.86
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Maritimo xG
Total xG
2.12
0.82
Guimaraes xG
2.24
45%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Guimaraes expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Maritimo and 0.82 for Guimaraes, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Guimaraes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Maritimo come into this having played 25 games, going 8W 8D 9L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. The sample for Maritimo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guimaraes sit at 1.32 PPG from 25 outings (9W 6D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Guimaraes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Maritimo against 1.32 for Guimaraes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Maritimo's home form reads 3W 6D 3L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Guimaraes have taken 0.75 points per game from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Guimaraes's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Maritimo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Maritimo are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Guimaraes are on 1.40 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guimaraes in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Blended
Guimaraes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Guimaraes in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 8W 8D 9L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Guimaraes have gone 9W 6D 10L in their last 25 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Maritimo at home or Guimaraes away?
Maritimo's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Maritimo at home: 1.25 PPG; Guimaraes away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Maritimo or Guimaraes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Maritimo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Guimaraes in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Guimaraes have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Maritimo have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Guimaraes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Maritimo
0
Draws
4
Guimaraes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Guimaraes?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 0, Guimaraes have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Guimaraes last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2023, when Maritimo 1-2 Guimaraes.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Guimaraes?
Guimaraes have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Maritimo see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Guimaraes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Maritimo 50%, Guimaraes 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Maritimo) and 58% (Guimaraes).
On the defensive side: Maritimo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Maritimo have failed to score in 33% of games; Guimaraes in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Guimaraes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Guimaraes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Maritimo's recent matches and 58% of Guimaraes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Maritimo vs Guimaraes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Maritimo's recent games and 58% of Guimaraes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Maritimo and Guimaraes tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Guimaraes in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Guimaraes defy the odds to beat Maritimo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guimaraes beat Maritimo 0-1 at Estádio dos Barreiros, Regular Season - 26, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Maritimo 1.30 xG and Guimaraes 0.82 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Maritimo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Maritimo attack 0.86 / defence 0.93 against Guimaraes attack 0.69 / defence 1.46, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Maritimo 45% | Draw 35% | Guimaraes 20%, with Maritimo to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Guimaraes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Maritimo 44%, Guimaraes 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Maritimo's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Guimaraes's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Maritimo 1.28 PPG, Guimaraes 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guimaraes win broke the near-deadlock. Maritimo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Guimaraes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.