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Shock result as GIL Vicente defy the odds to beat Moreirense 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

GIL Vicente beat Moreirense 1-2 at Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Moreirense 1.28 xG and GIL Vicente 1.20 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Moreirense attack 0.91 / defence 1.04 against GIL Vicente attack 0.92 / defence 0.91, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Moreirense 38% | Draw 27% | GIL Vicente 35%, with Moreirense to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual GIL Vicente win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Moreirense 54%, GIL Vicente 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Moreirense's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Moreirense 1.30 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the GIL Vicente win broke the near-deadlock. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights