Guimaraes 1-3 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guimaraes vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques plays host to Guimaraes versus Sporting CP in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guimaraes have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guimaraes's home record at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Guimaraes are significantly better at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques than their overall form suggests.
Sporting CP (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sporting CP's away record: 7W 2D 1L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sporting CP are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Guimaraes have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Sporting CP in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Guimaraes, 1 for Sporting CP and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Sporting CP winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Guimaraes — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 62% versus Sporting CP 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 62% | Sporting CP 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.29 xG and Sporting CP 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 1.260 / defence 1.264 | Sporting CP attack 1.263 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.007 / away 1.270. Guimaraes carry an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — their λ of 1.29 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 2.03 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Guimaraes games / 26 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guimaraes 22% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 52%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Sporting CP 1.92. Sporting CP hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sporting CP if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Guimaraes 90% | Sporting CP 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guimaraes vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guimaraes 22% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Guimaraes 1.29 / Sporting CP 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Guimaraes attack 1.260 / def 1.264 | Sporting CP attack 1.263 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.007 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Guimaraes xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Sporting CP xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guimaraes vs Sporting CP kick off?
Guimaraes vs Sporting CP kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What was the final score in Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?
Guimaraes 1 - 3 Sporting CP.
Where is Guimaraes vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques.
What competition is Guimaraes vs Sporting CP part of?
Guimaraes vs Sporting CP is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Guimaraes a 22% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 52% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Guimaraes and Sporting CP will score (BTTS).
Will Guimaraes vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Sporting CP?
Record (1 meetings): Guimaraes 0W | Draws 0 | Sporting CP 1W.
What form are Guimaraes and Sporting CP in?
Guimaraes (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Sporting CP (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Guimaraes's attack rating (1.26) and Sporting CP's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.26x) against Guimaraes's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
22%
4.58
26%
3.82
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Guimaraes xG
Total xG
3.32
2.03
Sporting CP xG
4.58
22%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
13%
7.60
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
3%
34.83
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Guimaraes and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Guimaraes and 2.03 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Guimaraes vs Sporting CP?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Guimaraes have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 10W 6D 10L record — L-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Guimaraes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sporting CP's form line: 20W 4D 2L from 26 games, 2.46 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Sporting CP is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sporting CP are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Guimaraes.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Guimaraes have posted 1.92 PPG from 12 outings (7W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.38 PPG overall — Guimaraes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sporting CP have gone 8W 3D 1L from 12 away games — 2.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Guimaraes are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 1.96 scored and 0.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Guimaraes have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 58% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guimaraes
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guimaraes and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Guimaraes have gone 10W 6D 10L in their last 26 games (1.38 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 20W 4D 2L in their last 26 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guimaraes at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guimaraes at home: 1.92 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Guimaraes or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guimaraes have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 58%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Sporting CP go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won 5-1 on 4 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guimaraes have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sporting CP — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Guimaraes
1
Draws
8
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guimaraes and Sporting CP?
From 10 meetings on record, Guimaraes have won 1, Sporting CP have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guimaraes and Sporting CP last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Sporting CP 5-1 Guimaraes.
Who has won more matches between Guimaraes and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Guimaraes see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Guimaraes, 58% for Sporting CP — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Guimaraes and 50% for Sporting CP. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sporting CP in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guimaraes home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guimaraes play Sporting CP?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Guimaraes's games and 58% of Sporting CP's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Guimaraes vs Sporting CP usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Guimaraes's matches and 50% of Sporting CP's.
Do Guimaraes and Sporting CP tend to score early?
Guimaraes have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Sporting CP in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sporting CP cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Guimaraes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Guimaraes 1-3 at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guimaraes 1.29 xG and Sporting CP 2.03 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 2.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guimaraes attack 1.26 / defence 1.26 against Sporting CP attack 1.26 / defence 1.02, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guimaraes 22% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 52%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guimaraes 62%, Sporting CP 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guimaraes's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sporting CP's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.