Famalicao 2-2 GIL Vicente – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Famalicao vs GIL Vicente fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho plays host to Famalicao versus GIL Vicente in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 15 April 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Famalicao's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Famalicao have posted 3W 4D 3L at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
GIL Vicente have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, GIL Vicente have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Famalicao, 1 for GIL Vicente and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 0–4 with GIL Vicente winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
GIL Vicente goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Famalicao 55% versus GIL Vicente 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Famalicao 55% | GIL Vicente 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Famalicao 0.88 xG and GIL Vicente 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Famalicao attack 0.884 / defence 1.061 | GIL Vicente attack 0.888 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.014 / away 1.239. Data: 29 Famalicao games / 29 GIL Vicente games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Famalicao 26% | Draw 33% | GIL Vicente 41%. Fair-value odds: Famalicao 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | GIL Vicente 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIL Vicente at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIL Vicente if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Famalicao 40% | GIL Vicente 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Famalicao vs GIL Vicente | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Famalicao 26% | Draw 33% | GIL Vicente 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Famalicao 0.88 / GIL Vicente 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Famalicao attack 0.884 / def 1.061 | GIL Vicente attack 0.888 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.014 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Famalicao xG
Expected Goals
1.17
GIL Vicente xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Famalicao vs GIL Vicente kick off?
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What was the final score in Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Famalicao 2 - 2 GIL Vicente.
Where is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho.
What competition is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente part of?
Famalicao vs GIL Vicente is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our statistical model gives Famalicao a 26% chance of winning, GIL Vicente a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Famalicao and GIL Vicente will score (BTTS).
Will Famalicao vs GIL Vicente have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
Record (1 meetings): Famalicao 0W | Draws 0 | GIL Vicente 1W.
What form are Famalicao and GIL Vicente in?
Famalicao (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-L-L. GIL Vicente (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Famalicao's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against GIL Vicente's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — GIL Vicente's attack (0.89x) against Famalicao's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
26%
3.84
33%
3.02
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Famalicao xG
Total xG
2.05
1.17
GIL Vicente xG
3.84
26%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
8%
12.34
17%
5.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 15.0 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Famalicao and GIL Vicente expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Famalicao and 1.17 for GIL Vicente, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Famalicao vs GIL Vicente?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Famalicao's recent record stands at 6W 10D 13L from 29 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-L in the last five.
GIL Vicente, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 7L across 29 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Famalicao heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Famalicao have managed 3W 6D 5L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
GIL Vicente's away record stands at 7W 5D 2L across 14 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIL Vicente come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Famalicao are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; GIL Vicente are on 1.38 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 29 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Famalicao
Current Season
GIL Vicente
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Famalicao and GIL Vicente in coming into this match?
Famalicao have gone 6W 10D 13L in their last 29 games (0.97 PPG), while GIL Vicente have gone 12W 10D 7L in their last 29 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Famalicao at home or GIL Vicente away?
GIL Vicente's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Famalicao at home: 1.07 PPG; GIL Vicente away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Famalicao or GIL Vicente been keeping clean sheets recently?
Famalicao have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, GIL Vicente in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: GIL Vicente won 5-0 on 1 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Famalicao have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against GIL Vicente — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Famalicao
4
Draws
3
GIL Vicente
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Famalicao and GIL Vicente?
From 10 meetings on record, Famalicao have won 3, GIL Vicente have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Famalicao and GIL Vicente last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when GIL Vicente 5-0 Famalicao.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Famalicao 50%, GIL Vicente 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Famalicao) and 43% (GIL Vicente).
On the defensive side: Famalicao keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; GIL Vicente in 36%; Famalicao have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Famalicao home games / GIL Vicente away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Famalicao play GIL Vicente?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Famalicao's recent matches and 57% of GIL Vicente's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Famalicao vs GIL Vicente usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Famalicao's recent games and 43% of GIL Vicente's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Famalicao and GIL Vicente share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Famalicao and GIL Vicente finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Regular Season - 30, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Famalicao 0.88 xG and GIL Vicente 1.17 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Famalicao beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. GIL Vicente outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Famalicao attack 0.88 / defence 1.06 against GIL Vicente attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Famalicao 26% | Draw 33% | GIL Vicente 41%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Famalicao 55%, GIL Vicente 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Famalicao's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
GIL Vicente's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Famalicao (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.