Maritimo vs Benfica – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Benfica at 66% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Maritimo vs Benfica encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Maritimo host Benfica at in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 September 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Maritimo — All Games: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Primeira Liga outings this season, averaging 1.75 points per game. Last five: W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Maritimo have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Benfica have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Maritimo at 1.75 PPG versus Benfica's 2.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Benfica have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against Maritimo's 0 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 0–3 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Maritimo trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
Benfica trading profile (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Maritimo 75% and Benfica 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Maritimo 75% | Benfica 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Maritimo 1.00 xG and Benfica 2.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Maritimo attack 0.901 / defence 1.099 | Benfica attack 1.651 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 1.260. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.651 — the away xG of 2.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 Maritimo games / 37 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Maritimo 15% | Draw 19% | Benfica 66%. Fair-value odds: Maritimo 6.67 | Draw 5.26 | Benfica 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (66%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Maritimo 75% | Benfica 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Maritimo vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Sep 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Maritimo 15% | Draw 19% | Benfica 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 57% | xG Maritimo 1.00 / Benfica 2.29 • Poisson strength factors: Maritimo attack 0.901 / def 1.099 | Benfica attack 1.651 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.337 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Benfica (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Maritimo xG
Expected Goals
2.29
Benfica xG
57%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Maritimo vs Benfica kick off?
Maritimo vs Benfica is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Saturday 5 September 2026.
What competition is Maritimo vs Benfica part of?
Maritimo vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Maritimo vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Maritimo a 15% chance of winning, Benfica a 66% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Maritimo vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Maritimo and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Maritimo vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Benfica?
Record (4 meetings): Maritimo 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 4W.
What form are Maritimo and Benfica in?
Maritimo (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-W-D-L. Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Maritimo's attack rating (0.90) and Benfica's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Maritimo's defence, projects 2.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 0-2 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
15%
6.58
19%
5.37
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
9.7%
Away win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Maritimo xG
Total xG
3.29
2.29
Benfica xG
6.58
15%
Home win
5.37
19%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
10%
9.84
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
2%
64.71
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 |
| 2 | 1.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Maritimo vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Maritimo and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Maritimo and 2.29 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Maritimo vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Maritimo come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 1D 1L for 1.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Maritimo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.50 PPG from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Maritimo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Maritimo are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 3.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Maritimo have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Benfica in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Maritimo
Early Season
Benfica
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Maritimo and Benfica in coming into this match?
Maritimo have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 games (1.75 PPG), while Benfica have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 (2.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Maritimo and Benfica runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Benfica go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Benfica won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Maritimo's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Maritimo
0
Draws
4
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Maritimo and Benfica?
From 4 meetings on record, Maritimo have won 0, Benfica have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Maritimo and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2023, when Maritimo 0-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Maritimo and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Maritimo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Maritimo at 75%, Benfica at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Maritimo and 100% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 75% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Maritimo home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Maritimo play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Maritimo's games and 75% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Maritimo vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Maritimo's matches and 100% of Benfica's.
Do Maritimo and Benfica tend to score early?
Maritimo have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Benfica in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.