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Poisson model rates Guimaraes at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guimaraes vs Casa Pia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

plays host to Guimaraes versus Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 6 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Guimaraes have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Guimaraes haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Guimaraes's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Guimaraes are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.

Casa Pia (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Casa Pia haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Casa Pia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Guimaraes against 1.00 for Casa Pia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Guimaraes 2W, Casa Pia 3W, 4D.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.9 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2026, ended 0–1 with Casa Pia winning.

With a balanced win record and just 0.9 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Where They Stand

The standings have Guimaraes (2nd, 0 pts) 13 places above Casa Pia (15th, 0 pts) — a 0-point gap in Primeira Liga.

Guimaraes's home record this season stands at 0W 0D 0L. Away from home, Casa Pia have posted 0W 0D 0L in Primeira Liga this season. Guimaraes: Promotion - Champions League (League phase).

Trading & In-Play

Guimaraes — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Casa Pia — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guimaraes 41% versus Casa Pia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guimaraes 44% | Casa Pia 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guimaraes 1.60 xG and Casa Pia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guimaraes attack 1.009 / defence 0.950 | Casa Pia attack 0.874 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.127. Data: 34 Guimaraes games / 34 Casa Pia games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Guimaraes 53% | Draw 25% | Casa Pia 22%. Fair-value odds: Guimaraes 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Casa Pia 4.55. Guimaraes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Guimaraes are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guimaraes if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 0.9 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Guimaraes 50% | Casa Pia 30% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

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