Benfica 2-1 Estoril – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Estoril.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Benfica welcome Estoril to Estádio da Luz. Kick-off is set for Monday 31 August 2026 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Benfica have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Benfica at Estádio da Luz this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Estoril have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Estoril have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Estoril away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Benfica are in the better shape of the two on current Primeira Liga data — 1.90 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Benfica have dominated this rivalry, winning 9 of 9 past contests while Estoril have managed just 0 wins.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 3–1 with Benfica winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 9 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Benfica trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Estoril trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 58% versus Estoril 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Benfica 72% | Estoril 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.76 xG and Estoril 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.208 / defence 1.010 | Estoril attack 0.848 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.287. Data: 36 Benfica games / 37 Estoril games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benfica 53% | Draw 24% | Estoril 24%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Estoril 4.17. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benfica 60% | Estoril 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benfica vs Estoril | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio da Luz • Kick-off: Monday 31 Aug 2026, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benfica 53% | Draw 24% | Estoril 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Benfica 1.76 / Estoril 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Benfica attack 1.208 / def 1.010 | Estoril attack 0.848 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Benfica (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Benfica xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Estoril xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benfica vs Estoril kick off?
Benfica vs Estoril kicked off at 19:15 on Monday 31 August 2026 at Estádio da Luz.
What was the final score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Benfica 2 - 1 Estoril.
Where is Benfica vs Estoril being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Luz.
What competition is Benfica vs Estoril part of?
Benfica vs Estoril is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Benfica vs Estoril?
Our statistical model gives Benfica a 53% chance of winning, Estoril a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Estoril?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Benfica and Estoril will score (BTTS).
Will Benfica vs Estoril have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
Record (9 meetings): Benfica 9W | Draws 0 | Estoril 0W.
What form are Benfica and Estoril in?
Benfica (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Estoril (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benfica's attack at 1.21x the league average against Estoril's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estoril's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.26
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Benfica xG
Total xG
2.86
1.10
Estoril xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.26
24%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
4%
24.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Estoril?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Benfica and Estoril expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Benfica and 1.10 for Estoril, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Estoril?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benfica come into this having played 36 games, going 24W 12D 0L for 2.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Benfica, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Estoril sit at 1.08 PPG from 36 outings (10W 9D 17L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Estoril, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Benfica's home form reads 11W 7D 0L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Estoril have taken 0.89 points per game from 18 outings (4W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benfica are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Estoril are on 1.50 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benfica
Early Season
Estoril
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benfica and Estoril in coming into this match?
Benfica have gone 24W 12D 0L in their last 36 games (2.33 PPG), while Estoril have gone 10W 9D 17L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benfica at home or Estoril away?
Benfica's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benfica at home: 2.22 PPG; Estoril away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Benfica or Estoril been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Estoril in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benfica's record when hosting Estoril specifically: 6W 0D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
10
Benfica
0
Draws
0
Estoril
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benfica and Estoril?
From 10 meetings on record, Benfica have won 10, Estoril have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Benfica and Estoril last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Benfica 2-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Benfica and Estoril?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benfica 61%, Estoril 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Benfica and 61% for Estoril. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Estoril in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benfica home games / Estoril away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benfica play Estoril?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Benfica's recent matches and 44% of Estoril's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benfica vs Estoril usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Benfica's matches and 61% of Estoril's.
Do Benfica and Estoril tend to score early?
Benfica have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Estoril in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Estoril 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benfica beat Estoril 2-1 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.76 xG and Estoril 1.10 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.21 / defence 1.01 against Estoril attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benfica 53% | Draw 24% | Estoril 24%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 72%, Estoril 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benfica's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Estoril's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.