GIL Vicente 2-2 Vizela – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIL Vicente at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIL Vicente vs Vizela fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
GIL Vicente and Vizela meet at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIL Vicente's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.75 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. GIL Vicente have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Vizela have collected 1.00 PPG across 4 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 2L. Last five: L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.25 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Vizela have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in GIL Vicente's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
GIL Vicente — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Vizela — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (GIL Vicente 0% | Vizela 50%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIL Vicente 25% | Vizela 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIL Vicente 1.71 xG and Vizela 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIL Vicente attack 1.045 / defence 1.082 | Vizela attack 0.642 / defence 1.644. League average goals — home 0.995 / away 1.092. Vizela bring a strong defensive rating of 1.644 — this is suppressing GIL Vicente's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 GIL Vicente games / 4 Vizela games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIL Vicente 57% | Draw 30% | Vizela 13%. Fair-value odds: GIL Vicente 1.75 | Draw 3.33 | Vizela 7.69. The model has a clear lean to GIL Vicente (57%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIL Vicente as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: GIL Vicente 0% | Vizela 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIL Vicente vs Vizela | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estádio Cidade de Barcelos • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIL Vicente 57% | Draw 30% | Vizela 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG GIL Vicente 1.71 / Vizela 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: GIL Vicente attack 1.045 / def 1.082 | Vizela attack 0.642 / def 1.644 | league avg home 0.995 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: GIL Vicente (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
GIL Vicente xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Vizela xG
47%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIL Vicente vs Vizela kick off?
GIL Vicente vs Vizela kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 12 September 2021 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What was the final score in GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
GIL Vicente 2 - 2 Vizela.
Where is GIL Vicente vs Vizela being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos.
What competition is GIL Vicente vs Vizela part of?
GIL Vicente vs Vizela is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Our statistical model gives GIL Vicente a 57% chance of winning, Vizela a 13% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making GIL Vicente the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both GIL Vicente and Vizela will score (BTTS).
Will GIL Vicente vs Vizela have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Vizela?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIL Vicente and Vizela in?
GIL Vicente (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-L-L. Vizela (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.25 | L5 L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
GIL Vicente's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Vizela's defensive record (1.64x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Vizela's attack (0.64x) against GIL Vicente's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIL Vicente Win
57%
1.76
30%
3.32
13%
7.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
GIL Vicente xG
Total xG
2.47
0.76
Vizela xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
7.70
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
27%
3.76
2%
42.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are GIL Vicente and Vizela expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for GIL Vicente and 0.76 for Vizela, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for GIL Vicente vs Vizela?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIL Vicente's recent record stands at 2W 0D 2L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for GIL Vicente, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vizela, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 2L across 4 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Vizela, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours GIL Vicente by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vizela heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
GIL Vicente are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Vizela are on 0.75 scored and 2.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: GIL Vicente have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIL Vicente
Early Season
Vizela
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIL Vicente and Vizela in coming into this match?
GIL Vicente have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Vizela have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have GIL Vicente or Vizela been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIL Vicente have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Vizela in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Vizela have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIL Vicente have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vizela — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
GIL Vicente
3
Draws
2
Vizela
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIL Vicente and Vizela?
From 6 meetings on record, GIL Vicente have won 1, Vizela have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did GIL Vicente and Vizela last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when GIL Vicente 0-1 Vizela.
Who has won more matches between GIL Vicente and Vizela?
Vizela have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIL Vicente see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Vizela tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (GIL Vicente) and 50% (Vizela) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (GIL Vicente) and 75% (Vizela).
On the defensive side: GIL Vicente keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; GIL Vicente have failed to score in 50% of games; Vizela in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIL Vicente home games / Vizela away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIL Vicente play Vizela?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of GIL Vicente's recent matches and 50% of Vizela's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIL Vicente vs Vizela usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of GIL Vicente's recent games and 75% of Vizela's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIL Vicente and Vizela tend to score early?
GIL Vicente have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Vizela in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
GIL Vicente and Vizela share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIL Vicente and Vizela finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Regular Season - 5, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIL Vicente 1.71 xG and Vizela 0.76 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vizela outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIL Vicente attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Vizela attack 0.64 / defence 1.64, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIL Vicente 57% | Draw 30% | Vizela 13%, with GIL Vicente to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIL Vicente 25%, Vizela 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIL Vicente's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Vizela's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, GIL Vicente arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIL Vicente scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vizela scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.