Pacos Ferreira 2-1 Moreirense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pacos Ferreira at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pacos Ferreira host Moreirense at Estádio da Capital do Móvel in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Pacos Ferreira have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacos Ferreira's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estádio da Capital do Móvel this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Moreirense stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Moreirense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Moreirense have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
On current form, Pacos Ferreira have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Pacos Ferreira, 0 for Moreirense and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Pacos Ferreira in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Moreirense in-play and half-time data (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pacos Ferreira 46% versus Moreirense 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pacos Ferreira 35% | Moreirense 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pacos Ferreira 1.48 xG and Moreirense 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.974 / defence 1.277 | Moreirense attack 0.568 / defence 1.509. League average goals — home 1.005 / away 1.279. Moreirense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.509 — this is suppressing Pacos Ferreira's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 Pacos Ferreira games / 26 Moreirense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 47% | Draw 33% | Moreirense 21%. Fair-value odds: Pacos Ferreira 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Moreirense 4.76. Pacos Ferreira hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pacos Ferreira at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacos Ferreira offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Pacos Ferreira 70% | Moreirense 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio da Capital do Móvel • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pacos Ferreira 47% | Draw 33% | Moreirense 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Pacos Ferreira 1.48 / Moreirense 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Pacos Ferreira attack 0.974 / def 1.277 | Moreirense attack 0.568 / def 1.509 | league avg home 1.005 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Pacos Ferreira (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Pacos Ferreira xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Moreirense xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense kick off?
Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What was the final score in Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense?
Pacos Ferreira 2 - 1 Moreirense.
Where is Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio da Capital do Móvel.
What competition is Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense part of?
Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense?
Our statistical model gives Pacos Ferreira a 47% chance of winning, Moreirense a 21% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Pacos Ferreira the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense will score (BTTS).
Will Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense?
Record (1 meetings): Pacos Ferreira 0W | Draws 1 | Moreirense 0W.
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense in?
Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Moreirense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pacos Ferreira's attack rating (0.97) and Moreirense's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Moreirense's attack versus Pacos Ferreira's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacos Ferreira Win
47%
2.13
33%
3.07
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Pacos Ferreira xG
Total xG
2.40
0.93
Moreirense xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
5%
21.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.4 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Pacos Ferreira and 0.93 for Moreirense, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pacos Ferreira's recent record stands at 7W 9D 10L from 26 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Pacos Ferreira is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Moreirense, meanwhile, have gone 4W 8D 14L across 26 games — 0.77 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Moreirense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pacos Ferreira on 1.15 PPG, Moreirense on 0.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pacos Ferreira have managed 3W 5D 5L from 13 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Moreirense's away record stands at 1W 5D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pacos Ferreira come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pacos Ferreira are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Moreirense are on 0.88 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pacos Ferreira
Blended
Moreirense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense in coming into this match?
Pacos Ferreira have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 games (1.15 PPG), while Moreirense have gone 4W 8D 14L in their last 26 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pacos Ferreira at home or Moreirense away?
Pacos Ferreira's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pacos Ferreira at home: 1.08 PPG; Moreirense away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Pacos Ferreira or Moreirense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pacos Ferreira have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Moreirense in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pacos Ferreira
1
Draws
0
Moreirense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense?
From 2 meetings on record, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, Moreirense have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Pacos Ferreira 2-1 Moreirense.
Who has won more matches between Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense?
Pacos Ferreira have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Moreirense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pacos Ferreira 62%, Moreirense 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Pacos Ferreira) and 38% (Moreirense).
On the defensive side: Pacos Ferreira have failed to score in 31% of games; Moreirense in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pacos Ferreira home games / Moreirense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pacos Ferreira play Moreirense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Pacos Ferreira's recent matches and 46% of Moreirense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pacos Ferreira vs Moreirense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Pacos Ferreira's recent games and 38% of Moreirense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pacos Ferreira and Moreirense tend to score early?
Pacos Ferreira have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Moreirense in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pacos Ferreira edge out Moreirense 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Moreirense 2-1 at Estádio da Capital do Móvel, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pacos Ferreira 1.48 xG and Moreirense 0.93 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pacos Ferreira attack 0.97 / defence 1.28 against Moreirense attack 0.57 / defence 1.51, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pacos Ferreira 47% | Draw 33% | Moreirense 21%, with Pacos Ferreira to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pacos Ferreira 35%, Moreirense 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Moreirense's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pacos Ferreira 1.15 PPG, Moreirense 0.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pacos Ferreira win broke the near-deadlock. Pacos Ferreira (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.